The "E" Word

Loathe as I am to say it, perception of "electability" is often the factor that swings their vote, when push comes to shove, to those who caucus in Iowa. As a Howard Dean supporter in 2004, I saw first hand how quickly the wind changes direction when people realize the importance of their choice to nominating a party's Presidential candidate. Undecided voters in particular are swayed by the electability card, as John Kerry gained a huge amount of his support in the waning moments just before the caucus in '04.

In my estimation, electability is one of those subjective factors that often is more about perceptions of candidate's ability to lead or win than our sharing their views. Case in point, most of the stuff that Democrats are campaigning on in 2008 is the vision that Dennis Kucinich voiced in 2004. Did the Democrats nominate him in 2004? Are they likely to do it in 2008?--No. Why? Because while the message was right, the messenger was/is perceived to be wrong. Like it or not, people rely on their perceptions of the candidates' leadership ability as well as what they say about issues that matter to them--hence what makes a candidate electable.

It is interesting to see that John Edwards continues to be the only major Democrat that is perceived by those polled to be able to defeat all of the major Republican contenders, as this new CNN poll reflects. Now whether it is strictly about views or leadership or swaying a certain type of voter, I am not sure.

CNN Poll Shows in Head to Head Races

Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 54%, Romney (R) 43%
McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 48%
Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 44%

Obama (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 54%, Romney (R) 41%
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 48%
Obama (D) 55%, Huckabee (R) 40%

Edwards (D) 53%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Edwards (D) 59%, Romney (R) 37%
Edwards (D) 52%, McCain (R) 44%
Edwards (D) 60%, Huckabee (R) 35%