The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus finds that Hillary Clinton is supported by 31% of Likely Caucus Participants. Barack Obama earns the vote from 27% and John Edwards is the top choice for 22%.
However, among those who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus, it gets a bit closer—Clinton 29% Obama 28% and Edwards 22%.
Among those who have participated in the caucus before it’s Obama 26% Clinton 25% and Edwards 24%.
Slight adjustments to the expected turnout produces a variety of results, but none that show a clear leader in the race.
Adding to the closeness of the race are the second choice rankings. Edwards is the second choice for 28% while Obama is the number two pick for 22%. Clinton and Bill Richardson are the second choice for 15%. Second choices are important for two reasons. First, because 26% of Likely Caucus Participants say they might change their mind. This includes 8% who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Additionally, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote in a particular setting, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates.
These results are generally similar to those from a week ago and the overall message is the same—it is still quite possible for any of the three leading candidates to emerge victorious. The caucus victor will be the candidate who does the best job of getting her or his supporters to the caucus sites.
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