Edwards' Trajectory Climbing

From The Nation

MCCAIN, EDWARDS MOVE UP FAST IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

The "headline" story from New Hampshire is that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama still lead on the Democratic side among likely first-primary state voters, while Mitt Romney still leads among Republicans.

But the real story, the story that points to a rapidly evolving race, is the rapid rise of candidates who were once written off.

Clinton and Obama are tied at 32 percent each in the new USA Today/Gallup Poll. That's pretty much where they have been for the few weeks since Obama began surging in early December.

But rising on the outside is John Edwards, who at the start of the month was polling barely 10 percent in most surveys. Now, Edwards is at 18 percent. As in Iowa, where he is now essentially tied for the lead with Obama, Edwards is the candidate who is closing fastest at the Holiday season gives way to the actual caucusing and voting.

The news on the Republican side in New Hampshire is even more dramatic. While Romney is at 34 percent, John McCain is now up to 27 percent. McCain has been sweeping newspaper endorsements in New Hampshire and has just picked up the support of the Boston Herald -- which circulates widely in the southern regions of the first-primary state -- to go with the backing he received Sunday from the Boston Globe.

Rudy Giuliani is in third on the Republican side, with 11 percent. But Ron Paul, the libertarian anti-war congressman who has clashed with Giuliani on foreign policy, is at 9 percent.

What does this all mean? McCain is now a very good bet to win New Hampshire. Obama will probably win the state, as well. But Edwards, the likely winner in the Iowa caucuses, will finish stronger than expected in the first-primary state -- where he has been barnstorming through small towns and cities with singers Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt. What this means is that neither contest will finish as soon as was expected just a month ago, when stumbling Democrat Hillary Clinton and the fast-fading Republican Mitt Romney were supposed to have it all wrapped up.