Happy Belated New Year. After 4 years and a month of commenting on politics, progressive and otherwise, I am continuing my last year trend of tapering off posts in 2011. Although over 10,000 people from around the world checked in on my blog last year, a fact that astounds this guy from Iowa, I feel that if I am to offer commentary at all, it should be with the same fervor that got me started in the first place.
With that in mind, 2011 will be a year with many stories emanating from Iowa. After all, the Iowa Caucuses are around the corner and the usual media blitz will follow as surely as birds fell out of the sky in Arkansas. However, as fellow bloggers like John Deeth are much better at the day to day coverage of such events and I encourage political trainspotters to follow John's blog. He is a great blogger and I tip my virtual hat to his raspberry beret.
As for me, I am writing a novel and will likely spend limited time commenting on the here and now, mostly because my novel is political fiction and I want to use the "good stuff" in that context. I will continue to post columns as events and issues strike my fancy.
A couple of 2010 notes:
The Democratic Party got an electoral whipping (yes, even in Iowa), but it should not have been a surprise. The Obama brand rose quickly and short of him genetically being fused with Annie Sullivan, ther was no way he could continue in the media-driven role of "the miracle worker." However, the party did themselves no favors by letting the narrative of 2010 to be "you're with us or against us." Clearly most voters didn't like what they were seeing and took it out on the party in power. Um, that's politics.
That being said, the repeal of DADT and the approval of the New START treaty were good exclamation points to end the year on. The Republicans take over the House with the majority of voters thinking that it doesn't matter who runs it, but will be flying up their agenda to make the case that if only there was a Republican in the White House again, they could get things done. The national agenda will be parlayed into the electioneering game as the circus comes to Iowa in the months to come. If President does not have any competition, expect Iowa to be the place where Republican candidates try to make the case for why they will be better for the country than him.
However, the thing to watch this year are the redistricting efforts across the country. In Iowa, Republicans who have the state house and governor's mansion are trying to make sure they have the state supreme court covered too by using the recent victory to not retain three justices that ruled on the side of marriage equality as a launching pad to impeach the remaining justices. What is really at stake is the tie-breaker if the plans for redistricting are not to the clear benefit of the Republican party. In Iowa, if a redistricting plan can not be agreed upon, the state supreme court is the final word. Politics, can't live with 'em, can't rule without 'em.
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 4
Saturday, January 5
Lessons from a Caucus
I've mentioned before that caucusing is a democratic, but unfair process. However for the less initiated, here are the lessons I gleaned from Thursday night.
1. Party Caucus does not equal organization or communication. For example, as a precinct captain, one would suppose that there would be a plan as to registering campaign people first so that they can do their work--not really.
2. Is it possible that judgment is impaired by confining people in a gym that is 100 degrees? Note to the parties, plan facilities better or otherwise lets just have a primary like most of the civilized world.
3. Counting preference groups--can we all agree on a method to do it? We counted cards and other groups counted people. Do you suppose there would be any possible errors in either method?
4. Tie breaking rules. If a preference group is not close enough to the cutoff off to round up, wouldn't it make sense to either not award the delegates or to award the higher number to the group (of those in question) that have the highest number of people in it? The answer is: "it might, but we don't do it that way."
5. 87 year old caucus goers in ill health should be able to leave and their vote still count--but they can't. Similar for persons of any age in ill health, pregnant, or just realizing there is more to life than caucusing.
6. The caucus goes on forever if you care about who runs your county party or want to introduce a plank for the county platform. Bring sleepwear.
7. What's the deal about having food without liquids? See #2 for the reason why hydration might be a good thing to plan for. I suppose that is what the Unity parties are all about--hydration and inebriation.
8. If you are smart, pick the group that looks most unviable. That means you get a cool meeting room and lots of circulation--plus people will come looking for you. Besides, frontrunners lose support to swooning.
9. You get to meet very nice, patient people, except for those who aren't.
10. The worst and most ill-named job at the Caucus is the precinct temporary chair. First, they always become the permanent chair and second, they can't make anyone happy except when they offer to cutoff speeches.
11. It makes great water cooler talk the next day-- win, lose or draw.
1. Party Caucus does not equal organization or communication. For example, as a precinct captain, one would suppose that there would be a plan as to registering campaign people first so that they can do their work--not really.
2. Is it possible that judgment is impaired by confining people in a gym that is 100 degrees? Note to the parties, plan facilities better or otherwise lets just have a primary like most of the civilized world.
3. Counting preference groups--can we all agree on a method to do it? We counted cards and other groups counted people. Do you suppose there would be any possible errors in either method?
4. Tie breaking rules. If a preference group is not close enough to the cutoff off to round up, wouldn't it make sense to either not award the delegates or to award the higher number to the group (of those in question) that have the highest number of people in it? The answer is: "it might, but we don't do it that way."
5. 87 year old caucus goers in ill health should be able to leave and their vote still count--but they can't. Similar for persons of any age in ill health, pregnant, or just realizing there is more to life than caucusing.
6. The caucus goes on forever if you care about who runs your county party or want to introduce a plank for the county platform. Bring sleepwear.
7. What's the deal about having food without liquids? See #2 for the reason why hydration might be a good thing to plan for. I suppose that is what the Unity parties are all about--hydration and inebriation.
8. If you are smart, pick the group that looks most unviable. That means you get a cool meeting room and lots of circulation--plus people will come looking for you. Besides, frontrunners lose support to swooning.
9. You get to meet very nice, patient people, except for those who aren't.
10. The worst and most ill-named job at the Caucus is the precinct temporary chair. First, they always become the permanent chair and second, they can't make anyone happy except when they offer to cutoff speeches.
11. It makes great water cooler talk the next day-- win, lose or draw.
Wednesday, January 2
The Iowa Caucus Is Unfair but Democratic
As the NY Times points out today, the Iowa caucuses are not fair to some. For example, Iowans serving in the military, people lying in hospital beds, and service and manufacturing workers who work night shifts are not going to be at the caucuses. They have no way to be heard except from their co-workers or veterans or healthy people who show up and speak their piece. Folks without child care or transportation are at a definite disadvantage, although the campaigns certainly try their darndest to get people to the polls, if they need a lift or a babysitter.
As we become, increasingly, a society that lives vicariously watching other Americans become "Idols" or at arms length from the realities we face reading the news via the Web, the Iowa Democratic Caucus is often thought of as quaint;
"Imagine, Clara, those huckleberries bundling up and going out to huddle together in the gymnasium while they are counted like chicks in a henhouse. Then, waiting around while some complicated mathematical formula is frittered with to award delegates to the county convention. And then, don't you know, some folks don't count at all, because their group is 'unviable,' whatever to Jesus on Crutches that means."
The Iowa Democratic Caucus, for some, may be thought of as akin to one of those fuddy-duddy catalogs that comes to your house sometime before the holidays that offers things like hand-tapped Vermont maple syrup and lace-collared flannel nightgowns.
The Caucus is "old-timey," imperfect, and unfair, but at least on the Democratic side, you get to see democracy in all its imperfect glory at work as friends and neighbors try to button-hole others into supporting their candidate. It is where the marketplace of ideas meets the social network and it is an oh so gooey melange of humanity and ideology.
Feelings get hurt, rivalries are renewed, revenge for past sins are exacted, and opinions are swayed with folksy logic. And that is what makes it so worthwhile. Politics usually are like the weather, everybody complains about them, but no one does anything. This is the place where we let down our societal hair and let people really know what the usually silent, polite, and perhaps even reserved, minority of the majority is thinking.
During this eyelash length of time, we are doing what politicians promise us they will do for us. We are fighting for them. We are their hope. We are real change. They can't be ready on Day One without us.
Many people think that the media has too much power in who gets elected. Others believe it is money. But I believe it is lack of participation. Politics talks about inclusiveness, but the power seems to go to a relative small number of people. Caucuses are a place where anyone can be a player, just by showing up.
In the perfect world, it can be conjectured, there would be a national primary day. Everyone would get their chance to go to the polls and vote. But imagine where that would leave us? Candidates would have to amass much more money just to participate or clean election/campaign finance laws would have to be revised to let more kids in the pool. And what about our participation in the process--shouldn't we have more say than giving money or time to a candidate?
So for now and, I hope, forever, on a very cold night in a state with slightly more than 3 million people, 6 to 12% of registered voters, many of them the same folks who pestered others to come out and caucus, will go to their local schools, fire houses, and other civic buildings. They will rise up and become "the deciders." It won't be pretty, it isn't fair, but it is representative democracy done in an increasingly arcane way:face-to-face by people wearing a candidate's sticker on their chests and their hearts on their sleeves.
As we become, increasingly, a society that lives vicariously watching other Americans become "Idols" or at arms length from the realities we face reading the news via the Web, the Iowa Democratic Caucus is often thought of as quaint;
"Imagine, Clara, those huckleberries bundling up and going out to huddle together in the gymnasium while they are counted like chicks in a henhouse. Then, waiting around while some complicated mathematical formula is frittered with to award delegates to the county convention. And then, don't you know, some folks don't count at all, because their group is 'unviable,' whatever to Jesus on Crutches that means."
The Iowa Democratic Caucus, for some, may be thought of as akin to one of those fuddy-duddy catalogs that comes to your house sometime before the holidays that offers things like hand-tapped Vermont maple syrup and lace-collared flannel nightgowns.
The Caucus is "old-timey," imperfect, and unfair, but at least on the Democratic side, you get to see democracy in all its imperfect glory at work as friends and neighbors try to button-hole others into supporting their candidate. It is where the marketplace of ideas meets the social network and it is an oh so gooey melange of humanity and ideology.
Feelings get hurt, rivalries are renewed, revenge for past sins are exacted, and opinions are swayed with folksy logic. And that is what makes it so worthwhile. Politics usually are like the weather, everybody complains about them, but no one does anything. This is the place where we let down our societal hair and let people really know what the usually silent, polite, and perhaps even reserved, minority of the majority is thinking.
During this eyelash length of time, we are doing what politicians promise us they will do for us. We are fighting for them. We are their hope. We are real change. They can't be ready on Day One without us.
Many people think that the media has too much power in who gets elected. Others believe it is money. But I believe it is lack of participation. Politics talks about inclusiveness, but the power seems to go to a relative small number of people. Caucuses are a place where anyone can be a player, just by showing up.
In the perfect world, it can be conjectured, there would be a national primary day. Everyone would get their chance to go to the polls and vote. But imagine where that would leave us? Candidates would have to amass much more money just to participate or clean election/campaign finance laws would have to be revised to let more kids in the pool. And what about our participation in the process--shouldn't we have more say than giving money or time to a candidate?
So for now and, I hope, forever, on a very cold night in a state with slightly more than 3 million people, 6 to 12% of registered voters, many of them the same folks who pestered others to come out and caucus, will go to their local schools, fire houses, and other civic buildings. They will rise up and become "the deciders." It won't be pretty, it isn't fair, but it is representative democracy done in an increasingly arcane way:face-to-face by people wearing a candidate's sticker on their chests and their hearts on their sleeves.
Sunday, December 30
New Polls Put Edwards Back On Top...Sort of
At this late date, it is not necessarily a good idea to get overly optimistic when a poll or two puts your candidate on top, but, hey, for the Edwards camp, it is a good news day.
Parsed from MSNBC
John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa's caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength as rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.
Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the two top Republican rivals here.
"On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit."
The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.
One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.
Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.
The second tier is particularly important in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don't make that threshold can support someone else.
As of now, that appears to help Edwards.
If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.
From Fox (I know, its got to hurt)
A Mason-Dixon poll of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers sampled from Dec. 26-28 found Edwards with 24 percent compared to Clinton with 23 percent and Obama with 22 percent. Bill Richardson polled at 12 percent in the poll, and undecideds formed 8 percent of the sample.Of course, holiday time polling is frequently unreliable and caucus polling is tricky under the best of circumstances, but that doesn’t mean the polling data doesn’t capture trends. It can and often does.
Edwards’ trajectory is up. All the campaigns agree on this. He is the only candidate who has competed in Iowa before and the only one with organizers who’ve demonstrated an ability to cut deals on caucus night to garner support from candidates who don’t meet the 15 percent viability threshold. For instance, in 2004, supporters of Dennis Kucinich went for Edwards, propelling him into second place. He later became the vice presidential nominee.
Parsed from MSNBC
John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa's caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength as rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.
Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the two top Republican rivals here.
"On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit."
The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.
One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.
Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.
The second tier is particularly important in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don't make that threshold can support someone else.
As of now, that appears to help Edwards.
If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.
From Fox (I know, its got to hurt)
A Mason-Dixon poll of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers sampled from Dec. 26-28 found Edwards with 24 percent compared to Clinton with 23 percent and Obama with 22 percent. Bill Richardson polled at 12 percent in the poll, and undecideds formed 8 percent of the sample.Of course, holiday time polling is frequently unreliable and caucus polling is tricky under the best of circumstances, but that doesn’t mean the polling data doesn’t capture trends. It can and often does.
Edwards’ trajectory is up. All the campaigns agree on this. He is the only candidate who has competed in Iowa before and the only one with organizers who’ve demonstrated an ability to cut deals on caucus night to garner support from candidates who don’t meet the 15 percent viability threshold. For instance, in 2004, supporters of Dennis Kucinich went for Edwards, propelling him into second place. He later became the vice presidential nominee.
Saturday, December 29
Feet Don't Fail Me Now--I'm Canvassing
Today was a chance to find out what people at home are thinking about where the Iowa caucus is concerned. Here is a synopsis:
1) Left town or out shopping - at least 25% of folks weren't home.
2) Still undecided - of the folks I talked to, at least half were still on the fence.
3) Tired of the attention - a handful of people were tired of all the politicking.
Good news: Those who I spoke to are mostly going to caucus because they want to see who will win.
For those who still have questions about issues and where John Edwards stands, I told them about:
http://www.johnedwards.com/iowa/askjohn
1) Left town or out shopping - at least 25% of folks weren't home.
2) Still undecided - of the folks I talked to, at least half were still on the fence.
3) Tired of the attention - a handful of people were tired of all the politicking.
Good news: Those who I spoke to are mostly going to caucus because they want to see who will win.
For those who still have questions about issues and where John Edwards stands, I told them about:
http://www.johnedwards.com/iowa/askjohn
Edwards in Muscatine: No Department of Peace
From MSNBC
One sign of momentum for Edwards five days before the Iowa caucus may be picking off caucus-goers from other campaigns. In a press release preceding the day’s first event, the campaign named 45 Iowans who supported either John Kerry, Howard Dean or Dick Gephardt in the 2004 caucus but plan to caucus for Edwards next week.
Meanwhile, at the event, a Kucinich supporter stood and said that he caucused for Edwards in 2004 after his first choice wasn’t viable. (In January 2004 Edwards and Kucinich each advised their supporters to move to the other’s camp if one of them was not viable.) The questioner said he was considering Edwards again.
“I was proud to caucus for you last time after campaigning my heart out for Dennis Kucinich,” he told Edwards and asked if the candidate would support Kucinich’s proposal for a Cabinet-level Department of Peace.
“Well, I’m not for a Department of Peace, so I’m going to give you an answer you don’t like. I think that -- and it’s a perfectly fine idea. I’m not saying it’s a bad idea. It’s just not what I would do,” he said. “I think the way the president of the United States approaches the rest of the world is more important than any of these bureaucracies, and the engagement and the constructive engagement with the rest of the world in a way that creates peace and security is the most critical element.”
Edwards was introduced at the event by his state co-chair, Roxanne Conlin, a trial lawyer and the first female gubernatorial candidate in Iowa, and by state Rep. Nathan Reichert from Muscatine. Reichert likened the former North Carolina senator’s campaign to a Big Ten football game.
“These folks who are in this room know that John Edwards has run a steady, grinding -- what I would call a good-time, smash mouth Big Ten football campaign. It has been 3 yards and a pile of dust, three yards and a pile of dust, three yards and a pile of dust,” he said. “It’s been Muscatine and West Liberty and Wapello and all those little towns all across Iowa.”
Edwards has three more events today, ending the day with a rally in Des Moines. He was joined in Muscatine by his son Jack and daughter Emma Claire. His wife Elizabeth and older daughter Cate are also traveling Iowa on his behalf today
One sign of momentum for Edwards five days before the Iowa caucus may be picking off caucus-goers from other campaigns. In a press release preceding the day’s first event, the campaign named 45 Iowans who supported either John Kerry, Howard Dean or Dick Gephardt in the 2004 caucus but plan to caucus for Edwards next week.
Meanwhile, at the event, a Kucinich supporter stood and said that he caucused for Edwards in 2004 after his first choice wasn’t viable. (In January 2004 Edwards and Kucinich each advised their supporters to move to the other’s camp if one of them was not viable.) The questioner said he was considering Edwards again.
“I was proud to caucus for you last time after campaigning my heart out for Dennis Kucinich,” he told Edwards and asked if the candidate would support Kucinich’s proposal for a Cabinet-level Department of Peace.
“Well, I’m not for a Department of Peace, so I’m going to give you an answer you don’t like. I think that -- and it’s a perfectly fine idea. I’m not saying it’s a bad idea. It’s just not what I would do,” he said. “I think the way the president of the United States approaches the rest of the world is more important than any of these bureaucracies, and the engagement and the constructive engagement with the rest of the world in a way that creates peace and security is the most critical element.”
Edwards was introduced at the event by his state co-chair, Roxanne Conlin, a trial lawyer and the first female gubernatorial candidate in Iowa, and by state Rep. Nathan Reichert from Muscatine. Reichert likened the former North Carolina senator’s campaign to a Big Ten football game.
“These folks who are in this room know that John Edwards has run a steady, grinding -- what I would call a good-time, smash mouth Big Ten football campaign. It has been 3 yards and a pile of dust, three yards and a pile of dust, three yards and a pile of dust,” he said. “It’s been Muscatine and West Liberty and Wapello and all those little towns all across Iowa.”
Edwards has three more events today, ending the day with a rally in Des Moines. He was joined in Muscatine by his son Jack and daughter Emma Claire. His wife Elizabeth and older daughter Cate are also traveling Iowa on his behalf today
Edwards: No Lobbyists in the White House
John Edwards told a crowd at in Washington, Iowa this morning that he would not hire any former corporate or foreign government lobbyists in his administration.
According to MSNBC
"I want to make an announcement today, which is that when I am president of the United States, no corporate lobbyist or anyone who has lobbied for a foreign government will work in my White House," he said.
Following the town hall, Edwards reiterated to reporters that that means he will not hire anyone who has ever been registered as a federal lobbyist in Washington, DC. He said that would include "people who have lobbied, been registered lobbyists in Washington on behalf of corporate interests at the federal level ... corporate lobbyists, those who've lobbied against the interests of the American people, those who've lobbied on behalf of foreign governments."
Asked whether that would include federal lobbyists who have worked on behalf of interests like labor that he champions, Edwards replied, "This will be a judgment I'll make. But my view is that anybody who has been lobbying on behalf of big corporations are part of the problem, because corporate greed is at the heart and soul of what's stealing the future of our children and what's killing the middle class in our country."
He said his announcement has nothing to do with other candidates' choices. "I think it would be a great thing for America if the other Democrats would commit to the same thing, but this is about my presidency," he said.
According to MSNBC
"I want to make an announcement today, which is that when I am president of the United States, no corporate lobbyist or anyone who has lobbied for a foreign government will work in my White House," he said.
Following the town hall, Edwards reiterated to reporters that that means he will not hire anyone who has ever been registered as a federal lobbyist in Washington, DC. He said that would include "people who have lobbied, been registered lobbyists in Washington on behalf of corporate interests at the federal level ... corporate lobbyists, those who've lobbied against the interests of the American people, those who've lobbied on behalf of foreign governments."
Asked whether that would include federal lobbyists who have worked on behalf of interests like labor that he champions, Edwards replied, "This will be a judgment I'll make. But my view is that anybody who has been lobbying on behalf of big corporations are part of the problem, because corporate greed is at the heart and soul of what's stealing the future of our children and what's killing the middle class in our country."
He said his announcement has nothing to do with other candidates' choices. "I think it would be a great thing for America if the other Democrats would commit to the same thing, but this is about my presidency," he said.
Friday, December 28
Virtual Tie in Latest Iowa Caucus Poll
A new Iowa caucus poll from Lee Enterprises newspapers shows the Democratic race is a virtual three-way tie, with John Edwards rising to tie Barack Obama for the lead and Hillary Clinton rising to just one point behind.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee remains in the lead with a 7-point edge over Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus goers from each party on Wednesday and Thursday, showed Edwards and Obama tied with 29 percent to lead Democrats, followed by Clinton with 28 percent. Bill Richardson was fourth with 7 percent. Joe Biden was fifth with 3 percent. Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich both had 1 percent and 2 percent were undecided.
For Republicans, Huckabee leads with 34 percent, followed by Romney with 27 percent. Fred Thompson is a distant third with 11 percent, followed by a three-way tie for fourth between Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Ron Paul, with 8 points each. Duncan Hunter had 1 percent and 3 percent were undecided. The poll, which has a margin or error of plus or minus 4.5 percent, was commissioned by Lee Enterprises and conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000. There is plenty of room for shifts in the final days before the Jan. 3 caucuses, with 19 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans saying they are likely or very likely to change their minds.
Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina, has gained 5 points from the Lee Enterprises poll two weeks ago, while Clinton, a U.S. senator from New York, has gained 4 points. Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois has seen his support drop 4 points. Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, has lost 2 points. The support for Biden, Dodd and Kucinich was unchanged.
The bottom line for Democrats is an already-close race is now closer.
The Republican race is more stable at the top, with Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, gaining 3 points since the poll two weeks ago, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gaining 5 points. Fred Thompson, the former U.S. senator from Tennessee, gained 2 points. McCain and Paul each gained 1 point, while Giuliani lost 1 point. Since the previous poll, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado has dropped out of the Republican race. He had 2 percent support before. Notably, Huckabee's numbers have risen despite weeks of relentless attacks from Romney and other opponents.
However Romney has narrowed the gap from the previous poll from 9 points to 7 points. The shifts in the Republican race appear to be driven by movement of undecided voters to one of the top two candidates, with undecided voters dropping from 12 percent to 3 percent between the two polls.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee remains in the lead with a 7-point edge over Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus goers from each party on Wednesday and Thursday, showed Edwards and Obama tied with 29 percent to lead Democrats, followed by Clinton with 28 percent. Bill Richardson was fourth with 7 percent. Joe Biden was fifth with 3 percent. Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich both had 1 percent and 2 percent were undecided.
For Republicans, Huckabee leads with 34 percent, followed by Romney with 27 percent. Fred Thompson is a distant third with 11 percent, followed by a three-way tie for fourth between Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Ron Paul, with 8 points each. Duncan Hunter had 1 percent and 3 percent were undecided. The poll, which has a margin or error of plus or minus 4.5 percent, was commissioned by Lee Enterprises and conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000. There is plenty of room for shifts in the final days before the Jan. 3 caucuses, with 19 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans saying they are likely or very likely to change their minds.
Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina, has gained 5 points from the Lee Enterprises poll two weeks ago, while Clinton, a U.S. senator from New York, has gained 4 points. Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois has seen his support drop 4 points. Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, has lost 2 points. The support for Biden, Dodd and Kucinich was unchanged.
The bottom line for Democrats is an already-close race is now closer.
The Republican race is more stable at the top, with Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, gaining 3 points since the poll two weeks ago, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gaining 5 points. Fred Thompson, the former U.S. senator from Tennessee, gained 2 points. McCain and Paul each gained 1 point, while Giuliani lost 1 point. Since the previous poll, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado has dropped out of the Republican race. He had 2 percent support before. Notably, Huckabee's numbers have risen despite weeks of relentless attacks from Romney and other opponents.
However Romney has narrowed the gap from the previous poll from 9 points to 7 points. The shifts in the Republican race appear to be driven by movement of undecided voters to one of the top two candidates, with undecided voters dropping from 12 percent to 3 percent between the two polls.
Still Undecided? Why Not "Ask John"
The John Edwards campaign announced the “Ask John” program -- giving undecided Iowans the opportunity to ask questions about any issues that concern them and get answers before they caucus. With just one week to go before caucus night, the program reflects Edwards’ commitment to discussing his bold, specific agenda directly with Iowa caucus goers and answering their questions about the issues that are important to them.
“I believe that anyone running for president has an obligation to listen to the voices of regular people and answer their questions directly,” Edwards said. “In these final seven days, I want every Iowan who has a question to know exactly where I stand and what I’ll do to take on the special interests and give middle class Americans a voice in Washington.”
While other candidates are sending out-of-state surrogates to counties the candidates themselves have never seen, Edwards is making the commitment to respond to questions from Iowans in all 99 counties. Edwards is the only candidate in the race who has visited and answered questions in every county in Iowa. The campaign designed the “Ask John” program to answer as many questions as possible, from as many places in Iowa as possible, in the final days before the caucuses.
“I strongly believe that whether you’re from Des Moines or Harlan, every caucus goer deserves to hear from each candidate about what that person will do as president to fix the broken system in Washington that puts corporate interests ahead of working Americans,” Edwards said.
Undecided Iowa caucus goers can "Ask John" in one of three ways:
1) At events during Edwards' on-going 38 county tour
2) Through a new Web site the campaign launched today -- www.johnedwards.com/askjohn
3) By calling Edwards' Iowa Campaign Headquarters at (515) 288-0766
The “Ask John” program will allow Edwards to answer questions from all 99 counties -- an extension of his status as the only candidate who has personally answered questions from Iowans in all 99 counties. As part of the campaign’s focus on undecided voters, Edwards’ wife, Elizabeth, and senior campaign staff members will also answer questions by phone and email -- including organizing special phonebanks to answer questions from "Ask John" questioners.
The campaign will ensure that every questioner receives a response by caucus night.
“I believe that anyone running for president has an obligation to listen to the voices of regular people and answer their questions directly,” Edwards said. “In these final seven days, I want every Iowan who has a question to know exactly where I stand and what I’ll do to take on the special interests and give middle class Americans a voice in Washington.”
While other candidates are sending out-of-state surrogates to counties the candidates themselves have never seen, Edwards is making the commitment to respond to questions from Iowans in all 99 counties. Edwards is the only candidate in the race who has visited and answered questions in every county in Iowa. The campaign designed the “Ask John” program to answer as many questions as possible, from as many places in Iowa as possible, in the final days before the caucuses.
“I strongly believe that whether you’re from Des Moines or Harlan, every caucus goer deserves to hear from each candidate about what that person will do as president to fix the broken system in Washington that puts corporate interests ahead of working Americans,” Edwards said.
Undecided Iowa caucus goers can "Ask John" in one of three ways:
1) At events during Edwards' on-going 38 county tour
2) Through a new Web site the campaign launched today -- www.johnedwards.com/askjohn
3) By calling Edwards' Iowa Campaign Headquarters at (515) 288-0766
The “Ask John” program will allow Edwards to answer questions from all 99 counties -- an extension of his status as the only candidate who has personally answered questions from Iowans in all 99 counties. As part of the campaign’s focus on undecided voters, Edwards’ wife, Elizabeth, and senior campaign staff members will also answer questions by phone and email -- including organizing special phonebanks to answer questions from "Ask John" questioners.
The campaign will ensure that every questioner receives a response by caucus night.
Wednesday, December 26
So You're Electable: That Don't Impress Me Much
It is rare that I am inspired by Shania Twain, but the song "That Don't Impress Me Much" reminded me:
"I've known a few [candidates] who thought they were pretty smart
But you've got being right down to an art
You think you're a genius-you drive me up the wall
You're a regular original, a know-it-all
Oh-oo-oh, you think you're special
Oh-oo-oh, you think you're something else
Okay, so what do you think you're Elvis or something...
Whatever
That don't impress me much."
So a request to all candidates: Please stop saying you are the most electable. Don't send me a another piece of mail with that phrase on it and don't have someone call me and tell me the same.
Okay, I get it. You have the experience, the ideas, the support, the ... (fill in the blank).
But here's the deal. I (and all the other caucus goers)get to decide who is most electable by --gasp--caucusing for the candidate I think is the most electable. Therefore, it is a waste of your time and mine for you to tell me you are the most electable.
As my neighbors to the south of Iowa say "show me." Tell me about the positions that I care about. Tell me about your plans to replace fossil fuel with renewable energy, how you will combat global warming, how you will make it possible for people to afford daycare, keep our jobs, or to improve education. Tell me how you are going to make it possible for everyone to have a safe place and a affordable home. Tell me about your plans not only about stopping this war, but how you intend to prevent future ones. Tell me how you are going to knock down the national debt so our great-grandchildren are not working 14 hours a day to pay it off.
Break away from your stump speech and do nothing but answer questions from your audiences. Now is the time we want to know about the issues we care about.
Make it less about you and more about us.
In 2004, we bought the myth that John Kerry was the most electable candidate and 49% of us were right.
We won't be happy with anything less than 50.1% this time.
In 2008, I hope that people will take into account all of the things that they believe are important and choose the candidate that best fits the shoes (be they loafers or pumps).
"I've known a few [candidates] who thought they were pretty smart
But you've got being right down to an art
You think you're a genius-you drive me up the wall
You're a regular original, a know-it-all
Oh-oo-oh, you think you're special
Oh-oo-oh, you think you're something else
Okay, so what do you think you're Elvis or something...
Whatever
That don't impress me much."
So a request to all candidates: Please stop saying you are the most electable. Don't send me a another piece of mail with that phrase on it and don't have someone call me and tell me the same.
Okay, I get it. You have the experience, the ideas, the support, the ... (fill in the blank).
But here's the deal. I (and all the other caucus goers)get to decide who is most electable by --gasp--caucusing for the candidate I think is the most electable. Therefore, it is a waste of your time and mine for you to tell me you are the most electable.
As my neighbors to the south of Iowa say "show me." Tell me about the positions that I care about. Tell me about your plans to replace fossil fuel with renewable energy, how you will combat global warming, how you will make it possible for people to afford daycare, keep our jobs, or to improve education. Tell me how you are going to make it possible for everyone to have a safe place and a affordable home. Tell me about your plans not only about stopping this war, but how you intend to prevent future ones. Tell me how you are going to knock down the national debt so our great-grandchildren are not working 14 hours a day to pay it off.
Break away from your stump speech and do nothing but answer questions from your audiences. Now is the time we want to know about the issues we care about.
Make it less about you and more about us.
In 2004, we bought the myth that John Kerry was the most electable candidate and 49% of us were right.
We won't be happy with anything less than 50.1% this time.
In 2008, I hope that people will take into account all of the things that they believe are important and choose the candidate that best fits the shoes (be they loafers or pumps).
For Whom Iowa Polls
From American Research Group 12/24 based on likely Iowa Caucus-goers. Interesting to see both Clinton's and Edwards' support on the uptick while Obama support slipping--any relationship between College voters leaving town and poll numbers? One has to wonder. Also curious, uptick on undecided caucus-goers?
IOWA
Democrats: Dec 16-19, Dec 20-23
Biden 8%, 8%
Clinton 29%, 34%
Dodd 3%, 2%
Edwards 18%, 20%
Gravel -, -
Kucinich 2%, 2%
Obama 25%, 19%
Richardson 7%, 5%
Undecided 8%, 10%
22% of likely caucus participants are undecided (10%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (12%).
85% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
68% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
89% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 27%, and Obama 16%.
Among women, Clinton is at 38%, Edwards 15%, and Obama 21%.
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women). Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton. Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at 11%. A week ago, Obama was at 27% among men, followed by 21% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.
600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (505 Democrats and 95 no party (independent) voters).
Sample Dates: December 20-23, 2007
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Incidence of Likely Democratic Caucus Participation: 10.3% of Democratic and no party voters.
Question Wording:
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?
Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?
IOWA
Democrats: Dec 16-19, Dec 20-23
Biden 8%, 8%
Clinton 29%, 34%
Dodd 3%, 2%
Edwards 18%, 20%
Gravel -, -
Kucinich 2%, 2%
Obama 25%, 19%
Richardson 7%, 5%
Undecided 8%, 10%
22% of likely caucus participants are undecided (10%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (12%).
85% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
68% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
89% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 27%, and Obama 16%.
Among women, Clinton is at 38%, Edwards 15%, and Obama 21%.
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women). Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton. Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at 11%. A week ago, Obama was at 27% among men, followed by 21% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.
600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (505 Democrats and 95 no party (independent) voters).
Sample Dates: December 20-23, 2007
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Incidence of Likely Democratic Caucus Participation: 10.3% of Democratic and no party voters.
Question Wording:
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?
Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?
Eight Days
With the Iowa Caucuses now a mere eight days away, it is certain that we will receive many more phone calls like the one we received on Christmas Eve that begins with
Them: Hi, I'm Susy Sunshine and I'm a volunteer for Senator Parasite. Do you know who you'll be caucusing for?
Me: John Edwards
Them: John Edwards? Did you know that Senator Parasite is for free chocolate and eternal youth? John Edwards voted against free chocolate.
Me: Well, that is something to consider, but I'm still committed to John Edwards.
Them: Can you tell me why?
Me: I like his health care plan, his energy plan, his plan to combat global climate change, the fact that he's against nuclear power plants and for more renewable, sustainable options, that his plan to end the war in Iraq is thoughtful, and he has a ten year plan to end poverty and strengthen the middle class.
Them: Oh--but he's against free chocolate.
Me: I can live with that. Thanks for calling.
Them: So can I say that you are leaning for Senator Para..(click).
It also means we are likely to get calls like this:
"Hi, I'm a famous celebrity who supports Congressman Fudge Factor. I hope you will join me in supporting Congressman Factor because he is for (fill in three issues here). I hope you will caucus for Congressman Factor on (fill in the date and time) at (fill in the precinct location). Because I'm a famous celebrity and you like me, I know you'll join me and vote for Congressman Factor."
Finally, it will mean we will all get mail like this:
America has a Chinchilla problem. Thousands of undocumented Chinchillas are crossing our borders every day. Governor Freeloader has a 12-step program to stop the spread of Chinchillas. *
*This advertisement was paid for by Americans 4 Freedom But Not 4 Chinchillas, a non-partisan organization that does not endorse candidates, but we really like Governor Freeloader a lot.
On the other hand, if you are not sure who you are caucusing for, you've only got eight days to inform yourself--follow the advice (and links) of the local progressive issues group The 49 and Pay Attention.
Them: Hi, I'm Susy Sunshine and I'm a volunteer for Senator Parasite. Do you know who you'll be caucusing for?
Me: John Edwards
Them: John Edwards? Did you know that Senator Parasite is for free chocolate and eternal youth? John Edwards voted against free chocolate.
Me: Well, that is something to consider, but I'm still committed to John Edwards.
Them: Can you tell me why?
Me: I like his health care plan, his energy plan, his plan to combat global climate change, the fact that he's against nuclear power plants and for more renewable, sustainable options, that his plan to end the war in Iraq is thoughtful, and he has a ten year plan to end poverty and strengthen the middle class.
Them: Oh--but he's against free chocolate.
Me: I can live with that. Thanks for calling.
Them: So can I say that you are leaning for Senator Para..(click).
It also means we are likely to get calls like this:
"Hi, I'm a famous celebrity who supports Congressman Fudge Factor. I hope you will join me in supporting Congressman Factor because he is for (fill in three issues here). I hope you will caucus for Congressman Factor on (fill in the date and time) at (fill in the precinct location). Because I'm a famous celebrity and you like me, I know you'll join me and vote for Congressman Factor."
Finally, it will mean we will all get mail like this:
America has a Chinchilla problem. Thousands of undocumented Chinchillas are crossing our borders every day. Governor Freeloader has a 12-step program to stop the spread of Chinchillas. *
*This advertisement was paid for by Americans 4 Freedom But Not 4 Chinchillas, a non-partisan organization that does not endorse candidates, but we really like Governor Freeloader a lot.
On the other hand, if you are not sure who you are caucusing for, you've only got eight days to inform yourself--follow the advice (and links) of the local progressive issues group The 49 and Pay Attention.
Saturday, December 22
Caucus Holiday Song 3: Here We Come a Canvassing
Here We Come a Canvassing (From the Traditional: Here We Go A Wassailing")
Here we come a canvassing
from door to door
Here we come a canvassing
I know we've been here before
To your homes we come to you
and if you are leaning, we assign a two
Are you caucusing? You know the time is near
Just say you'll caucus January 3rd next year
and if you are leaning, we assign a two
Please caucus, you know the time is near
Say you'll caucus January 3rd next year
to drop lit from us to you.
You're caucusing for who?
Please consider our candidate as your number two
and to you we share our views
The Caucus starts at 7 be there and
Do you know your precinct chair?
our mission we'll abort
We'll see you at the caucus January 3rd never fear.
Bless you and yours and have a Happy New Year!
Here we come a canvassing
from door to door
Here we come a canvassing
I know we've been here before
To your homes we come to you
and if you are leaning, we assign a two
Are you caucusing? You know the time is near
Just say you'll caucus January 3rd next year
Our footprints are many
through the rain, ice, and snow
who else would you expect to see
when it's thirteen below?
and if you are leaning, we assign a two
Please caucus, you know the time is near
Say you'll caucus January 3rd next year
We are not daily beggars
though it may seem so,
But we are your friends and neighbors,
members of the PTO.
to drop lit from us to you.
You're caucusing for who?
Please consider our candidate as your number two
Though you may not answer
when we rap upon your door
We know you're in there
We can hear you snore
and to you we share our views
The Caucus starts at 7 be there and
Do you know your precinct chair?
Though we know it's a bother
We mean you no grief
We just want to tell you why
Our candidate should be the Commander-in-Chief
our mission we'll abort
We'll see you at the caucus January 3rd never fear.
Bless you and yours and have a Happy New Year!
Friday, December 21
OMG! Words to Caucus By
From the DesMoines Register
Stumped on caucus jargon?
In the next two weeks, you may run into a staff worker for one of the presidential candidates.
The following Pocket Guide to Campaign Speak dictionary may help you survive that conversation.
These terms won't ensure fluency in campaign jargon, but they should allow for better communication.
Above all, do not panic. In all likelihood, the staffer may never put down his or her Blackberry and engage you in any way. Or she may just need directions to the nearest coffee stand or wireless provider.
However, do not attempt to commit to any candidate during this conversation, or you run the risk of being entrapped by yard signs and junk mail and spending the evening peeling stickers off your favorite holiday sweater.
Good luck.
The term: Body guy
What it means: An aide who travels with a candidate and is the go-to person for whatever the candidate needs, watching out for his or her well-being. The job involves waking the candidate, toting snacks and making sure every event goes as smoothly as possible.
How to use it in a sentence: "The candidate's body guy was just over here scouting out restrooms."
The term: Precinct captain
What it means: This person is a link between the campaign and the voters.
"Someone who has knocked on doors for the last few months and gotten to know their precinct," said Gordon Fischer, a political blogger and former head of the Iowa Democratic Party. Iowa has nearly 1,800 precincts. Each one has a caucus and each campaign wants a precinct captain at each caucus.
How to use it in a sentence: "The precinct captain for Joe Biden just invited us to a house party."
The term: GOTC
What it means: Get Out The Caucusers.
How to use it in a sentence: "What's your GOTC plan?"
The term: Viability
What it means: An important term with Democrats. If candidates don't attain 15 percent of the votes at a caucus, they're considered not viable and supporters have to caucus for a different candidate.
Used in a sentence: "Will he be viable in the northern precincts?"
The term: Wheels up
What it means: "The candidate's gone," according to Grant Young, a field rep for Sen. John McCain. "Usually, we say that when the candidate is happy and on his way. Or we're doing this and this and, 'Wheels up. He's on the plane.' "
Used in a sentence: "Some advance guys are famous for holding wheels up parties," Young said.
The term: Advance teams
What it means: A group of staffers who arrive before a candidate to set up events or trips, everything from coordinating with local contacts to hoisting signs.
How to use it in a sentence: "The advance team was setting up for seven straight hours."The terms: National headquarters nicknames
What it means: Campaigns often refer to their national headquarters by its city or state location.
Used in a sentence: "Let's run it by North Carolina," would be jargon at John Edwards' office. Sen. Barack Obama's camp calls its "Chicago." McCain's staffers refer to their national headquarters as "Nationals."
The term: Purple states
What it means: A new way to describe swing states.
How to use it in a sentence: "Your guy couldn't win a purple state, much less a red state
The term: 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5s
What it means: A code to describe support, used by the Obama campaign. A "1" is solidly committed to their candidate. A "5" is solidly committed elsewhere. A "3" is undecided. This system also is used to label the direction in which a supporter is leaning. So if an Obama staffer talks with someone who's leaning toward supporting John Edwards, but is undecided, they would label the person a 3E.
Used in a sentence: "People will use that in everyday language," said Fischer, who recently overheard women in the office talking about footwear using the same system: "I'm a 2 on those shoes."
The term: OTR
What it means: Off the record. Unscheduled or spontaneous events or events reporters don't know about. Also known as "impromptus."Used in a sentence: "Mike
Huckabee's going to drop into this flower shop for an OTR."
The term: RON
What it means: Remain overnight.
Used in a sentence: "After he's in New Hampshire, he's going to Iowa for an RON."
The term: Open voter
What it means: An undecided voter.
Used in a sentence: "We've got a lot of open voters in the southern precincts."
The term: LM
What it means: Left a message. Used by volunteers calling a list of names.
Used in a sentence: "On the call sheet, I marked it as an LM."
The term: The P-Triple-C
What it means: Slang for the Polk County
Convention Complex. Used by the Republican Party of Iowa.
Used in a sentence: "The P-Triple-C? That's practically headquarters for the Iowa Democratic and Republican parties from Dec. 28 to Jan. 4."
Whither Whilst Thou Caucus?
Don't know where to caucus? No problem. The Iowa Democratic Party has a handy-dandy caucus finder that has your answer.
By the way, if you find yourself in Iowa City's Precinct 17 and want to support John Edwards at the caucuses, let me know!
By the way, if you find yourself in Iowa City's Precinct 17 and want to support John Edwards at the caucuses, let me know!
Happy Holidays
As many intrepid Iowans flood the airports and highways of our great nation and make their way to family members near and far, some of us will be making phone calls and doing our best to encourage people to Caucus (although some of us [and I hope it is none] won't be doing it on Christmas).
It is a job that, if anyone is honest about it, is painful. All of us know the stress that the holidays can bring. It is hard not to be sensitive to the notion that people want to celebrate Christmas and really aren't too happy to be bothered with politics. But then there is always the chance, as happens every day, that the person you talk to really appreciates what you have to offer, a free ticket to make a difference.
What happens in Iowa on January 3rd matters. The ripple effect caused by the outcome of the caucus can catapault a candidate forward and leave others in the dust. And it is important. After two terms with a President that has changed the fabric of American life, I hope everyone has the sense that we can do better.
I'm sure every candidate and their supporters has a win in Iowa on their Christmas wish list.
For all the campaign workers and volunteers Democrat and otherwise, it is good to remember that despite our differences, we have great privilege to live in a country, that despite all its problems, always holds out hope for what it can become. Whether we agree about method, I think the thing that hold us all together as "activists" is the ideals that the season brings to bear--peace on earth, goodwill to man(kind).
Be Well, Do Well. Happy Holidays.
It is a job that, if anyone is honest about it, is painful. All of us know the stress that the holidays can bring. It is hard not to be sensitive to the notion that people want to celebrate Christmas and really aren't too happy to be bothered with politics. But then there is always the chance, as happens every day, that the person you talk to really appreciates what you have to offer, a free ticket to make a difference.
What happens in Iowa on January 3rd matters. The ripple effect caused by the outcome of the caucus can catapault a candidate forward and leave others in the dust. And it is important. After two terms with a President that has changed the fabric of American life, I hope everyone has the sense that we can do better.
I'm sure every candidate and their supporters has a win in Iowa on their Christmas wish list.
For all the campaign workers and volunteers Democrat and otherwise, it is good to remember that despite our differences, we have great privilege to live in a country, that despite all its problems, always holds out hope for what it can become. Whether we agree about method, I think the thing that hold us all together as "activists" is the ideals that the season brings to bear--peace on earth, goodwill to man(kind).
Be Well, Do Well. Happy Holidays.
Thursday, December 20
You Gotta Show Up Before 7 pm (to Caucus)
Diverting from the holiday theme and with a nod to the Beastie Boys and their classic "Fight for your right (to party)"--Keep this in mind on January 3rd.
Kick it!
You get home late from work on the 3rd and you don't want to show.
You ask you wife, "Please?" but she says, "We gotta Go!"
You're standing in a long line at your precinct
it's six-thirty and the line's longer than you'd think.
You gotta show before 7 pm to Caucus!
You see your neighbor is undecided and that's when you say
"I really need you to support my candidate come over my way."
Man, this standing in line can be such a drag
But you're checked in, found your preference group, it's in the bag.
But you gotta show before 7 pm to Caucus!
"It's 7 pm, doors are shut" says the temporary chair
the excitement is palpable, you can feel it in the air.
You're eating a home made cookie, as the caucus begins."
Now that you're there you want your candidate to win!
But, you gotta be there before 7 pm to Caucus!
If this helps to inspire you:
Kick it!
You get home late from work on the 3rd and you don't want to show.
You ask you wife, "Please?" but she says, "We gotta Go!"
You're standing in a long line at your precinct
it's six-thirty and the line's longer than you'd think.
You gotta show before 7 pm to Caucus!
You see your neighbor is undecided and that's when you say
"I really need you to support my candidate come over my way."
Man, this standing in line can be such a drag
But you're checked in, found your preference group, it's in the bag.
But you gotta show before 7 pm to Caucus!
"It's 7 pm, doors are shut" says the temporary chair
the excitement is palpable, you can feel it in the air.
You're eating a home made cookie, as the caucus begins."
Now that you're there you want your candidate to win!
But, you gotta be there before 7 pm to Caucus!
If this helps to inspire you:
Wednesday, December 19
Iowa D's and R's Unite: What No Union Bug?
The official logo for Caucus 2008. Iowa Caucuses, accept no substitutes.
Insider Advantage Poll Puts Edwards On Top in Iowa
According to Southern Political Report
John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. In the Republican caucus race, Mike Huckabee continues to hold a narrow lead over Mitt Romney.
The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.
Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.
Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.
Under both screens, Edwards leads as the second choice of these voters, with Clinton trailing Obama.
“If Edwards is the second choice at this stage of those who intend to vote for other Democrats, then it would not be surprising if he produced a bit of a shock in Iowa,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.
Towery said the firm employed the same methodology with regard to asking the second choice of those who were voting for candidates other than those in the top tier, and obtained an accurate picture of John Kerry’s lead.
The poll of 977 Democrats who said they will go to the caucuses, conducted Sunday and Monday has a error margin of plus-or-minus 3 percent. The tighter screen of 633 voters has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percent.
John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. In the Republican caucus race, Mike Huckabee continues to hold a narrow lead over Mitt Romney.
The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.
Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.
Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.
Under both screens, Edwards leads as the second choice of these voters, with Clinton trailing Obama.
“If Edwards is the second choice at this stage of those who intend to vote for other Democrats, then it would not be surprising if he produced a bit of a shock in Iowa,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.
Towery said the firm employed the same methodology with regard to asking the second choice of those who were voting for candidates other than those in the top tier, and obtained an accurate picture of John Kerry’s lead.
The poll of 977 Democrats who said they will go to the caucuses, conducted Sunday and Monday has a error margin of plus-or-minus 3 percent. The tighter screen of 633 voters has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percent.
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