Obama Increases Lead in National Poll

From CNN: A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by 8 points, according to CNN's latest poll.

1 of 2 The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public's perception of McCain's running mate could be contributing to Obama's gains.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.

That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September.

President George Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey. See the latest polling

"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1975, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

More here.

Rasmussen Polls Predict Obama, Clinton, Edwards Finish

The final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 37% to 30%.

Clinton has a slight edge among Democrats but the Illinois Senator enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage among Independent voters likely to vote in the Democratic Primary.

Among Likely Democratic Primary Voters, the current New Hampshire poll also shows John Edwards with 19%, Bill Richardson with 7%, and Dennis Kucinich with 3% support.

New Polls Put Edwards Back On Top...Sort of

At this late date, it is not necessarily a good idea to get overly optimistic when a poll or two puts your candidate on top, but, hey, for the Edwards camp, it is a good news day.

Parsed from MSNBC

John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa's caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength as rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.


Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the two top Republican rivals here.

"On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit."

The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.

One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.

Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.

The second tier is particularly important in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don't make that threshold can support someone else.

As of now, that appears to help Edwards.

If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.


From Fox (I know, its got to hurt)

A Mason-Dixon poll of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers sampled from Dec. 26-28 found Edwards with 24 percent compared to Clinton with 23 percent and Obama with 22 percent. Bill Richardson polled at 12 percent in the poll, and undecideds formed 8 percent of the sample.Of course, holiday time polling is frequently unreliable and caucus polling is tricky under the best of circumstances, but that doesn’t mean the polling data doesn’t capture trends. It can and often does.

Edwards’ trajectory is up. All the campaigns agree on this. He is the only candidate who has competed in Iowa before and the only one with organizers who’ve demonstrated an ability to cut deals on caucus night to garner support from candidates who don’t meet the 15 percent viability threshold. For instance, in 2004, supporters of Dennis Kucinich went for Edwards, propelling him into second place. He later became the vice presidential nominee.

For Whom Iowa Polls

From American Research Group 12/24 based on likely Iowa Caucus-goers. Interesting to see both Clinton's and Edwards' support on the uptick while Obama support slipping--any relationship between College voters leaving town and poll numbers? One has to wonder. Also curious, uptick on undecided caucus-goers?

IOWA
Democrats: Dec 16-19, Dec 20-23

Biden 8%, 8%
Clinton 29%, 34%
Dodd 3%, 2%
Edwards 18%, 20%
Gravel -, -
Kucinich 2%, 2%
Obama 25%, 19%
Richardson 7%, 5%
Undecided 8%, 10%

22% of likely caucus participants are undecided (10%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (12%).
85% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
68% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
89% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 27%, and Obama 16%.
Among women, Clinton is at 38%, Edwards 15%, and Obama 21%.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women). Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton. Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at 11%. A week ago, Obama was at 27% among men, followed by 21% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.

600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (505 Democrats and 95 no party (independent) voters).

Sample Dates: December 20-23, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Incidence of Likely Democratic Caucus Participation: 10.3% of Democratic and no party voters.

Question Wording:

If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?

Edwards' Trajectory Climbing

From The Nation

MCCAIN, EDWARDS MOVE UP FAST IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

The "headline" story from New Hampshire is that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama still lead on the Democratic side among likely first-primary state voters, while Mitt Romney still leads among Republicans.

But the real story, the story that points to a rapidly evolving race, is the rapid rise of candidates who were once written off.

Clinton and Obama are tied at 32 percent each in the new USA Today/Gallup Poll. That's pretty much where they have been for the few weeks since Obama began surging in early December.

But rising on the outside is John Edwards, who at the start of the month was polling barely 10 percent in most surveys. Now, Edwards is at 18 percent. As in Iowa, where he is now essentially tied for the lead with Obama, Edwards is the candidate who is closing fastest at the Holiday season gives way to the actual caucusing and voting.

The news on the Republican side in New Hampshire is even more dramatic. While Romney is at 34 percent, John McCain is now up to 27 percent. McCain has been sweeping newspaper endorsements in New Hampshire and has just picked up the support of the Boston Herald -- which circulates widely in the southern regions of the first-primary state -- to go with the backing he received Sunday from the Boston Globe.

Rudy Giuliani is in third on the Republican side, with 11 percent. But Ron Paul, the libertarian anti-war congressman who has clashed with Giuliani on foreign policy, is at 9 percent.

What does this all mean? McCain is now a very good bet to win New Hampshire. Obama will probably win the state, as well. But Edwards, the likely winner in the Iowa caucuses, will finish stronger than expected in the first-primary state -- where he has been barnstorming through small towns and cities with singers Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt. What this means is that neither contest will finish as soon as was expected just a month ago, when stumbling Democrat Hillary Clinton and the fast-fading Republican Mitt Romney were supposed to have it all wrapped up.

The "E" Word

Loathe as I am to say it, perception of "electability" is often the factor that swings their vote, when push comes to shove, to those who caucus in Iowa. As a Howard Dean supporter in 2004, I saw first hand how quickly the wind changes direction when people realize the importance of their choice to nominating a party's Presidential candidate. Undecided voters in particular are swayed by the electability card, as John Kerry gained a huge amount of his support in the waning moments just before the caucus in '04.

In my estimation, electability is one of those subjective factors that often is more about perceptions of candidate's ability to lead or win than our sharing their views. Case in point, most of the stuff that Democrats are campaigning on in 2008 is the vision that Dennis Kucinich voiced in 2004. Did the Democrats nominate him in 2004? Are they likely to do it in 2008?--No. Why? Because while the message was right, the messenger was/is perceived to be wrong. Like it or not, people rely on their perceptions of the candidates' leadership ability as well as what they say about issues that matter to them--hence what makes a candidate electable.

It is interesting to see that John Edwards continues to be the only major Democrat that is perceived by those polled to be able to defeat all of the major Republican contenders, as this new CNN poll reflects. Now whether it is strictly about views or leadership or swaying a certain type of voter, I am not sure.

CNN Poll Shows in Head to Head Races

Clinton (D) 51%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 54%, Romney (R) 43%
McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 48%
Clinton (D) 54%, Huckabee (R) 44%

Obama (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 45%
Obama (D) 54%, Romney (R) 41%
McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 48%
Obama (D) 55%, Huckabee (R) 40%

Edwards (D) 53%, Giuliani (R) 44%
Edwards (D) 59%, Romney (R) 37%
Edwards (D) 52%, McCain (R) 44%
Edwards (D) 60%, Huckabee (R) 35%

Polls: Give the People What They Want

Perhaps nothing is more telling about where the public is than what pollsters are learning. As the poll below shows, prospective voters are more interested on positions and the person than ranking in the polls.

What Topics the Public Wants Covered: More Coverage / Less Coverage

Candidates’ position on issues 77% /17%
Candidate debates 57% / 32%
Candidates’ personal backgrounds and experiences 55% / 36%
The candidates who are not front runners 55% / 37%
Sources of candidates’ campaign money 55% / 35%
Which candidate in leading in the latest polls 42% / 45%

Source: Pew Research Center for People and the Press September 28 – October 1, 2007

What some other pollsters are learning:

Just five candidates have been the focus of more than half of all the coverage. Hillary Clinton received the most (17% of stories), though she can thank the overwhelming and largely negative attention of conservative talk radio hosts for much of the edge in total volume. Barack Obama was next (14%), with Republicans Giuliani, McCain, and Romney measurably behind (9% and 7% and 5% respectively). As for the rest of the pack, Elizabeth Edwards, a candidate spouse, received more attention than 10 of them, and nearly as much as her husband.

Democrats generally got more coverage than Republicans, (49% of stories vs. 31%.) One reason was that major Democratic candidates began announcing their candidacies a month earlier than key Republicans, but that alone does not fully explain the discrepancy.

Overall, Democrats also have received more positive coverage than Republicans (35% of stories vs. 26%), while Republicans received more negative coverage than Democrats (35% vs. 26%). For both parties, a plurality of stories, 39%, were neutral or balanced.

Most of that difference in tone, however, can be attributed to the friendly coverage of Obama (47% positive) and the critical coverage of McCain (just 12% positive.) When those two candidates are removed from the field, the tone of coverage for the two parties is virtually identical.

There were also distinct coverage differences in different media. Newspapers were more positive than other media about Democrats and more citizen-oriented in framing stories. Talk radio was more negative about almost every candidate than any other outlet. Network television was more focused than other media on the personal backgrounds of candidates. For all sectors, however, strategy and horse race were front and center.

Poll: Congress and Bush Both in the Dumper

Only a third of the public is satisfied with the job President Bush is doing and even fewer are pleased with Congress, according to a poll by The Associated Press and Ipsos released Thursday.

With the clash between Bush and congressional Democrats over Iraq continuing to dominate the news, 33 percent said they approve of Bush's performance. That essentially matched his all-time low of 32 percent measured several times in the AP-Ipsos survey, a level that has barely changed since late last year.

Bush's approval on various issues ranged from 40 percent on foreign policy and terrorism to 33 percent on Iraq. But he wasn't the only one whose popularity was in the doldrums.

Congress' 26 percent approval was also about the same as its low point since Democrats took control this year, which was 24 percent in July.

Friday Quick Hits

Five U.S. soldiers were killed when a "very large" roadside bomb exploded near their combat patrol in southern Baghdad, a U.S. general said Friday.

A combination of small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades followed the blast Thursday, said Army Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr., who described the attack as "showing a level of sophistication that we have not often seen so far" during the period of the so-called "surge" in U.S. forces.

Fil said four soldiers were killed initially. Seven others were wounded, he said, and one of those later died.


The New York Times has a new poll out. Here's a clue, it wouldn't be in this blog if it wasn't saying something I would not agree with.

What Women See in Hillary (or not)
from the Nation via Zogby

"I love [Hillary Clinton] so completely that, honestly, she would have to burn down the White House before I would say anything bad about her!" exclaimed Nora Ephron in a 1993 Newsday interview. Three years later, she told the Wellesley class of 1996, "Understand: Every attack on Hillary Clinton for not knowing her place is an attack on you." Come late 2006, however, Ephron was the one on the attack as one of the self-described "Hillary resisters" -- those who believe that "she will do anything to win, who believe she doesn't really take a position unless it's completely safe," as she wrote on her Huffington Post blog, "who believe she has taken the concept of triangulation and pushed it to a geometric level never achieved by anyone including her own husband, who can't stand her position on the war, who don't trust her as far as you can spit."

Hey Guantanamo Detainees, The Court's in Your Favor
The Supreme Court said today that it would review the rights of Guantanamo Bay detainees to challenge their confinements in federal court, reversing a decision in April not to take up that issue.

A Syria-ous Charge
President George W. Bush on Friday banned Syrian and Lebanese officials whom Washington accuses of undermining the Lebanese government from entering the United States, the White House said.

Free Air Better Than Fair Air?
The House voted Thursday to bar the Federal Communications Commission from reinstating the broadcast “fairness doctrine” even though there are no legislative or regulatory proposals to bring back the rule. The bill which was adopted, 309-115, puts the House on record as favoring “freedom on the public airwaves.” This is great news for Rush, Sean, Ann, and less good news for equal press. With consolidation of the airwaves, this points to the need for community radio.

Veggie Booty Might Make You a Sicko
Food poisoning isn't progressive so be aware a recall is underway for snack food Veggie Booty which may have a type of salmonella in it.

Bush "Putin" on the Ritz in Kennebunkport This Weekend For Russian Leader
Caviar from the Caspian Sea will be flown in to the land of lobster as what might be the final meeting between Presidents Bush and Vladimir Putin gets underway in Kennebunkport, Maine.

Dems Challenge Invocation of Executive Privilege
In a letter to White House counsel Fred Fielding, the heads of the Senate and House Judiciary committees demanded an explanation in 10 days of why the White House claimed executive privilege on subpoenaed documents and vowed to invoke "the full force of law."

Homeland's Chertoff: He Don't Like, He Don't Like, He Don't Like--Propane
A long way to go for a pun, but Charles Grassley and Tom Harkin saw problems with new propane regulations proposed by the Department of Homeland Security. The proposal would list propane as a chemical of interest when kept in quantities greater than 7,500 pounds, forcing a costly risk assessment.

MSNBC Poll on Impeachment

The power of the Internet. MSNBC is running a poll about whether the president should be impeached. What do you think?

Live Vote
Do you believe President Bush's actions justify impeachment?

* 482,287 responses

Yes, between the secret spying, the deceptions leading to war and more, there is plenty to justify putting him on trial. 88%

No, like any president, he has made a few missteps, but nothing approaching "high crimes and misdemeanors." 4.2%

No, the man has done absolutely nothing wrong. Impeachment would just be a political lynching. 5.6%

I don't know. 1.8%

Not a scientific survey. Click to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

Dems War Deadline Moving to July?

It looks like the Dems are listening to the majority of people who want the war to change direction. According to Yahoo News

"House Democratic leaders planned to brief party members Tuesday on new legislation that would fund the Iraq war through July, then give Congress the option of cutting off money after that if conditions do not improve.

If members agree to back the plan as expected, a vote on the new war spending bill could come as early as this week. The proposal, pitched last week by Rep. David Obey (news, bio, voting record), D-Wis., was first disclosed Thursday by The Associated Press.

White House spokesman Tony Snow on Tuesday called the approach "just bad management."
"We think it is appropriate to be able to give commanders what they are going to need, and also forces in the field, so that you can make long-term decisions in trying to build the mission," Snow said."

Speaking of "bad management" USA Today reports
Americans by nearly 2-1 disapprove of the job President Bush is doing, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. He scores a net disapproval rating in every area of the survey, including the economy and terrorism. His lowest ratings — 30% approval, 67% disapproval — were for his handling of the situation in Iraq.

Iowa Polls v. National Picture

It's the beginning of a new month, who's on first?

Iowa Democratic Caucus from Real Clear Politics

Real Clear Politics Polling Data
03/19 - 04/30
-
Edwards 28.8
Clinton 24.0
Obama 20.3
Edwards +4.8

American Res. Group
04/26 - 04/30
600 LV
Edwards 27
Clinton 23
Obama 19

Edwards +4.0

Strategic Vision (R)
03/30 - 04/01
600 LV
Edwards 27
Clinton 19
Obama 20
Edwards +7.0

Univ. of Iowa
03/19 - 03/31
298 LV
Edwards 34
Clinton 29
Obama 19
Edwards +5.0

Zogby
03/26 - 03/26
506 LV
Edwards 27
Clinton 25
Obama 23
Edwards +2.0

On the national level:


RCP Average
04/12 - 04/30

Clinton 34.4
Obama 25.3
Edwards 16.0
Gore 14.6
Clinton +9.1

Meanwhile in the Polls

From The Des Moines Register
Two recent polls of Iowans show former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to hold an edge in the leadoff nominating state, even amid news that his wife's cancer has returned and that former Gov. Tom Vilsack has endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton.

U OF I POLL: 206 likely Democratic caucus-goers, taken March 19-25, with margin of error of 6 percentage points.

John Edwards 33%
Hillary Clinton 31%
Barack Obama 19%
Undecided 11%

All others are in low single digits

ZOGBY POLL: 506 likely Democratic caucus-goers, taken Monday, with margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Edwards 27%
Clinton 25%
Obama 23%
Undecided 15%

Free Republic has a Republican Poll for the Iowa caucuses going.

On the national front Zogby reports

The survey, conducted March 22–26, 2007, included 432 Democratic respondents (margin of error of +/– 4.8 percentage point) and 376 Republicans (margin of error +/– 5.2 percentage points).

Democrats			Republicans
Clinton	32%		Giuliani	27%
Obama	22%		McCain	13%
Edwards	13%		Thompson	9%
Biden	2%		Romney	9%
Richardson	2%		Paul	3%
Kucinich	1%		T. Thompson	1%
Not Sure	24%		Huckabee	1%
			Hunter	1%
			Tancredo	1%
			Not sure	28%

FACTCHECK Says White House Spins Iraqi Polling

Tony Snow says two polls on Iraqi optimism are "diametrically opposed." A close look shows otherwise.

March 23, 2007

Summary

Results of an ABC News survey of public opinion in Iraq found much pessimism as the fourth anniversary of the war approached. When asked for comment, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow cited a British poll which he said offered a "different conclusion." The British poll's summary did sound less gloomy, but a close look at the numbers showed that the actual results of the two polls are similar.

Analysis

On March 19th, ABC News, and its news media partners, announced the results of a new survey of public opinion in Iraq, the third in a series of Iraqi polls it has conducted roughly every year and a half beginning in February 2004. The previous poll was released in November 2005, and its findings were trumpeted by President Bush as proof that "Iraqis are optimistic -- and that optimism is justified." At that time we found that Bush was citing the polls findings selectively, and that neither Bush nor his critics had accurately painted the full complexity of Iraqi public opinion.

This time the Bush administration isn't embracing the latest poll at all. It found "a draining away of the underlying optimism that once prevailed." Conclusions were so unrelentingly negative that the report is titled, "Ebbing Hope in a Landscape of Loss."

When asked about these findings at a press briefing, Press Secretary Snow replied that "there was also a British poll at the same time that had almost diametrically opposed results." That mischaracterizes the British poll.

Snow is referring to a poll conducted by the British firm Opinion Research Business . There is nothing in the ORB poll results that contradicts ABC's poll findings. In fact, when the two survey companies asked similar questions, their results were very much in line. For example:

ABC Poll Q2. Compared to the time before the war in Spring 2003, are things overall in your life much better now, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse or much worse? 42% -"Better" 36% -"Worse"

ORB "British" Poll Q8. Taking everything into account, do you feel that things are better for you now under the present political system or do you think things were better for you before under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein? 49% -“Better under the current system” 26% -“Better under the previous regime”

So the British poll found a somewhat greater share of its sample – 49 percent as opposed to 42 in the ABC poll – saying that life is better under the current regime. However, the difference is not much more than the statistical margins of error (+/- 1.4% for ORB, +/- 2.5% for ABC). The polls were completed within 11 days of each other in February and early March.

Results of the first Popular Progressive Poll

The "winners" of the last poll of the four most acceptable candidates for president were

John Edwards with 22%
Barack Obama with 17%
Al Gore with 12%
Joe Biden with 8%

Vote this month for your one favorite candidate for president.

AP Poll Reports Bush Worse than Satan !

Okay, this is a little harsh, but George W. Bush is ranked the "#1 villain in US" according to AP poll.