Caucus Tea Leaves

While out and about yesterday, I discovered that quite a number of people are deliberating on who they will support come caucus time. This morning, while perusing the morning Press-Citizen, it was Barack Obama who grabbed the headlines, with two pictures of him on the front page and a profile.

It is not unexpected that Obama would get great coverage, he did snag the endorsement of arguably the most popular woman in Oprah Winfrey, and that's good for his effort. But like the robo-calls from celebrities, it is one more person's opinion, albeit a very celebrated person.

And it is right that people haven't made up their minds about where they will hang their hats on caucus night. Think about it, in 2004 Howard Dean had amassed a formidable lead with less than a month to the caucus, now the "surge" seems to be edging farther away from Hillary's camp and more toward Obama's, at least according to the latest polls.

What is largely missed in the Clinton/Obama saga is the continued stable support for John Edwards. What people see in Edwards I suspect is a leader who will fight for them and experience in running against the Republicans--remembering that he was the other half of the ticket that rang up 49% of the popular vote in 2004. I suspect that some, myself included, thought we had the ticket upside down then, and now believe that Edwards will give us our best chance to delineate ourselves from the Republicans who have won the south heavily in past elections.

The Democrats are in an enviable position in 2008 with a plethora of good candidates and the Republicans looking more and more in disarray. With no disrespect to Mike Huckabee, they face the same problem the Democrats did in 2004. A governor from a small state leading the race and the perceived frontrunners, including a war hero Senator, lagging badly.

However, as we have learned time and again is that nothing is for sure in politics. Who would have thought a war hero would lose to a sitting President who had never served in one?

I do not expect the Republicans to phone-in this election and therefore we need our best fighter out in front. While we know Hillary Clinton can take a punch, as she did as First Lady, we don't know if she can throw one. Barack Obama is charismatic, but untested. The only candidate who has been through the presidential election fray is John Edwards and we know he can throw a punch and has the charisma factor too.

Some of the folks I talked to are planning to come to the caucus and make their decision based on how many people are standing in each candidates corner. Perhaps there is wisdom in holding out, but I think the best thing to do is consider all the issues you care most about and see which candidate stands closest to your views. I have always believed that the caucus, like an instant runoff election, allow us to pick our first choice, whether we think they will win or not, and then realign ourselves if we are on the short end of the stick.

Caucuses to be sure are the most interactive form of democracy, but they should be approached by informed caucus-goers who understand our state's historic role in propelling the candidates forward--as we learned in 2004, as Iowa goes, so goes the Nation.