Delegate Counts: Counting the Chickens Before They Hatch

Here's an interesting editorial that makes the point that the chickens are too often counted before they are hatched. If you have a few bucks, help Truthout continue to deliver the news that the mass media often neglects.

The Real Delegate Count
By Scott Galindez
t r u t h o u t | Perspective

Barack Obama 9
Hillary Clinton 9
John Edwards 4

The Associated Press and other media outlets are trying to tell us they know how many delegates each candidate will get out of Iowa, just as I told you they would in a previous article. Florida and Michigan make the delegate count even more confusing.

David Redlawsk, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, who teaches a course on the Iowa caucuses, confirmed the numbers the media is projecting for Iowa delegate allocation is nothing more than a prediction. He said it bothers him the media is reporting these numbers as if they are factual since it is very unlikely the final count will be the same after the district level conventions, where delegates to the national convention will be chosen. He also pointed out the super delegate count could also change dramatically since none of them are committed to remain with the candidates they now say they are supporting.

The Associated Press is reporting: "In the overall race for the nomination, Clinton leads with 187 delegates, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as super delegates. She is followed by Obama with 89 delegates and Edwards with 50."

While there is some truth to this, the "super delegates," like the Iowa county convention delegates, (which was all that was decided in Iowa), can change their minds anytime they want.

For example, Senator Kerry endorsed Obama yesterday, but if Hillary Clinton starts running the table, he will likely vote for Clinton at the convention to show party unity.

If the race remains neck and neck the super delegates could decide it. That is a scenario that favors Hillary, since she has the establishment Democrats on her side.
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