Caucus Countdown: Dems' fundraising dinner offers preview of race to caucus finish line
By Chris Dorsey
IowaPolitics.com
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards did exactly what they needed to do -- give energizing and crowd-pleasing speeches -- Saturday night at the Iowa Democratic Party's annual Jefferson Jackson Dinner.
With both candidates trailing New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in Iowa and in national polls, they seized their opportunity on the state and national stage to garner new support as well as secure existing backers going into the final weeks of the caucus contest.
After discussions with party insiders and some of the 9,000 people in attendance, the consensus seemed to be that the candidates who have generally polled in the top three -- Clinton, Edwards and Obama -- all did well, with Edwards and Obama excelling in particular. Among the other three candidates -- Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson -- the crowd seemed to be moved the most by Dodd and Biden, but not enough to significantly affect their chances in January, interviews afterwards suggested.
The Dem fundraising dinner traditionally marks beginning of the stretch run to the caucuses, and that's even more true this year with the early January caucus date. More television ads will start hitting the airwaves and campaigns are making their final push to garner support.
"This is the official beginning of the stretch drive," a Democratic insider said. "All the teams are beefed up with staff and advertising dollars. This is where everybody at the top are having targets put on their backs. The gloves will definitely come off."
The week leading up to the Nov. 10 dinner gave Iowans a taste of what things will be like through the end of the year, with a flurry of campaign visits across the state. According to an IowaPolitics.com tally, the six candidates who spoke Saturday night spent a combined total of 25 days in Iowa in the seven days preceding the fundraiser.
Four years ago the 2003 Jeff-Jack Dinner saw the emergence of Sen. John Kerry in Iowa. He used the momentum gained from the IDP event to secure a win in the 2004 caucus, overcoming one-time frontrunners Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt in the process. Dean and Gephardt launched television ads attacking each other, then watched as Kerry and Edwards finished first and second on caucus night.
"It will be interesting to see if campaigns will be more clever," a campaign source said. "Will candidates (be on the attack) or handle it through surrogates?"
If her speech Saturday is any indication, it doesn't look like Clinton's planning on attacking right now. Early on she discussed need to focus criticism on Republicans, not on other Democrats, and to focus attention on the nation's problems. However, Clinton did have veiled references to Obama in her speech, arguing that "change is just a word if you don't have the strength and experience to make it happen."
Though neither Edwards nor Obama mentioned Clinton by name, both challenged her indirectly on lobbyist fundraising, foreign policy and other issues. It's an indication of the direction their campaign strategy could take over the next seven weeks.
For some time Obama's camp has signaled that it's ready to directly challenge Clinton and that's just what he did Saturday night. Obama criticized "triangulation" and "poll-driven positions," reiterated that he had not voted for the war in Iraq and criticized the influence of lobbyists in government.
Edwards, who has seen his lead in the Iowa polls dwindle away this year, may have reinvigorated supporters with a fiery speech that featured more criticism of lobbyists' influence on government. He was passionate and emotional as he promised to give America hope and give entrenched interests "hell.'' He highlighted his work as a lawyer, saying he had repeatedly beaten special interests in court and that he would do it again as president.
IDP Chairman Scott Brennan called the event the most successful Jefferson Jackson Dinner in history. As they work to catch up to Clinton, Edwards and Obama are hoping their speeches mark a historic turning point in the 2008 caucus race.
-- Dorsey is the Des Moines bureau chief for the non-partisan political news site IowaPolitics.com. To learn more about the Iowa caucuses and the field of Democratic and Republican candidates, go to www.iowapolitics.com.
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