A cut and paste from the Des Moines Register's Mike Glover. I actually think that Edwards is correct in his analysis.
John Edwards said Friday he's essentially banking his presidential hopes on a strong showing in Iowa's leadoff precinct caucuses.
Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, said it will be difficult for any Democratic candidate to win the party's nomination without faring well in Iowa.
"I think that anybody who wants this nomination - not just me, but it would apply to me - if you don't do well in Iowa it is very hard to win this nomination," said Edwards. "I think John Kerry effectively won the nomination in 2004 when he won the Iowa caucuses."
Edwards credited Kerry with having a better understanding of the caucus' significance. Edwards was second in 2004, a surprising finish that earned him a spot as Kerry's running mate.
"I actually give him (Kerry) credit for that," said Edwards. "If you remember, he figured it out, he closed his operations everywhere else and moved everything to Iowa. I and other people didn't do that."
Edwards spoke during a taping of Iowa Public Television's "Iowa Press" program, airing this weekend. In the interview, he defended his low-key campaign approach, which has often drawn smaller crowds than have turned out for Democratic rivals Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.
"I know what it takes to campaign in Iowa," said Edwards. "You can't just go to events where there are 2,000, 3,000 people. You've got to get into people's homes, you've got to get into smaller town and communities and you've got to do the work, you've got to do the organizing."
The primary calendar has changed dramatically since the last election cycle, with many states moving up to Feb. 5 or even earlier. Due to the earlier elections, the Democratic nomination will likely be settled by Feb. 5, and Edwards said the nominee could be apparent after the Iowa caucuses.
"If you don't do well here, it's very hard to win the nomination," he said.
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