Reflection Leading Up to Elections of 2018

On November 6, 2016, I wrote: "This [run up to the] election has been at times ugly, it has been divisive, and it has been exacerbated by sexism, classism, and racism and to a large degree, the opposing candidate has turned it to his favor in a P.T. Barnum sort of way. But when I think of what is at stake with regard to the Supreme Court justice choice, attending to the worsening global environment both in terms of war and climate change, the need to have a leader who can orchestrate a working government, to address health and social safety nets, in addition to attending to social justice and immigration reform issues, and it is abundantly clear that the two parties see very different paths forward.  Both candidates promise to right the economy and have very different plans to do so. It should also be clear that one of these candidates deserves the benefit of the doubt.  My chief worry is that it is being awarded to the wrong person."

The benefit of the doubt came and went. Despite the popular vote going to Hillary Clinton, the Electoral College added up to a win for Donald Trump. My chief worries, as it turned out were justified and then some.

As of today, the FBI has tapped the phone of President Trump's personal lawyer. The President apparently repaid Michael Cohen for a nondisclosure agreement with actress/porn star Stormy Daniels, a charge he has denied on multiple occasions. And this is more important to the average American than the possible withdrawal from a nuclear agreement with Iran, the fact that the EPA and other agencies have been repealing safeguards that further damage the environment and leave gaping holes in the social safety net. This is more important than whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians. More important than the 20+ million people who lost their healthcare coverage. Not mention the worsening of US policy were immigration is concerned and the hostage-taking of DREAMers to drive tax and health care "reforms" through.

So far the bright spot in the narrative I feared is that the Supreme Court Justice nominated by Trump, Neil Gorsuch, is not as horrible as expected. So far.

The things I couldn't have foreseen, North Korea getting its nukes on, blowing up their facilities, and suddenly making nice to South Korea; a large number of Republicans retiring or being forced to retire due to sexual harassment or worse; Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern states jumping into the fray; a couple of hurricanes that made things incredibly miserable for Puerto Ricans; and a revolving door at the White House the likes of which has not been seen since the Teapot Dome Scandal (look it up). The flare-ups around racism and sexism, while not 100% surprising, have nonetheless been nothing less than earthshaking.

On the other side of the coin, the Koreas are talking to each other, high school kids are driving a movement to bring something resembling sense to gun laws (and the jury is very much out on how that will go); the economy in terms of jobs is looking good. The biggest thing is that it may be a November to remember for progressives Democrats as the House may flip back to their control. Sadly, the Senate is not likely to do the same short of a complete rejection of the Republican party in their strongholds. More importantly, with many Governorships up for grabs, 7 to 12 R held offices could be flipped to D and some state legislatures as well.

The Trump effect, it would appear is more of a boomerang effect than a long-term trend. However, the lesson from 2016, do not count any chickens as a sure thing and GOTV.