Early Voting Heavy in Texas and Ohio

Voters in Ohio and Texas apparently understand the importance of their vote in determining next Tuesday's primaries in Texas and Ohio. With early voting closing in Texas today, as of Wednesday, 584,994 Texans in the state's 15 most populous counties had voted Democratic. In Ohio, early voting in six of the largest counties is being compared to the turnout in the 2004 general election.

Also, a judge struck down a county's challenge to Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's Jan. 2, 2008 directive requiring backup paper ballots by boards of elections using touch-screen (direct recording electronic-DRE) voting machines in the March 4 presidential primary election.

The case was brought by Union County commissioners who sought to challenge the secretary's authority to issue the directive, arguing that it unlawfully mandated two types of voting systems.
Calling the secretary's directive one that "merely directs how Union County's existing voting equipment will be used," the judge found that the county commissioners lacked standing to attack the secretary's directive and that the failure of the county board of elections to be a party deprived the court of the ability to proceed on the merits.

Meanwhile in the polls, Barack Obama holds a slight lead on Hillary Clinton in Texas and has almost pulled even in Ohio before contests that could decide their Democratic presidential battle, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll released on Friday.

The contests on Tuesday are crucial for Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady fighting to halt Obama's streak of 11 consecutive victories in their battle for the Democratic nomination for the November 4 presidential election.

Obama, an Illinois senator, has a 6-point edge on Clinton in Texas, 48 percent to 42 percent. He trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage point

He Said, She Said: Hillary and Barack in Ohio

Overall Impression

The NBC debate in Ohio between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama last night turned over little in terms of new ideas, but managed to suck the life out of the those that had been covered. Seriously, is it me, or does anyone else want to scream "enough" when it comes to the "mandate" differences between Clinton and Obama's health care plans? We all know that it will come down to what Congress will agree to and then it will be up to whichever one is elected to sign it into law.

I am sure I wasn't the only one to wish things like global warming initiatives and how they plan to deal with the economic crisis would have been discussed.

Also, am I the only one who is less interested in the hearing "shoutouts" to cities in the state? The formula seems to be "I was talking to a [fill in the blank] in Parma, Dayton, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Youngstown and [he/she] told me [place issue here]."

Who Won

Overall, I think it was Hillary's night. She was much more specific and explanatory about her views. The format of the debate was more her speed. She started off sluggish by complaining about being asked the tough questions first and that Obama, basically, is being coddled. However, after that, she was all business.

Obama, while not ceding points to Clinton, was not disarming in his counterpoints, which has been his strong suit. Like Clinton, he was prickly about what he deemed to be unfair play by the Clinton camp.

Who Lost

NBC's Brian Williams and Tim Russert who seemed to delight in the picayune statements from the campaign trail and kept trying to push buttons to get reactions. They also did little to keep the debate on track.

Lines of the Night

Obama

On distancing himself from Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan "I don't see a difference between denouncing and rejecting," he said, adding that he would both reject and denounce Farrakhan if it would satisfy Clinton, a remark that drew laughter and applause.

On the Iraq War: "The fact was, this was a big strategic blunder. It was not a matter of 'Well, here is the initial decision, but since then we've voted the same way.' Once we had driven the bus into the ditch, there were only so many ways we could get out. The question is: Who's making the decision initially to drive the bus into the ditch?"

Clinton

On Going First in the debates: “Well, could I just point out that, in the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time,’’ Clinton complained last night in Cleveland. “And I don't mind. You know, I'll be happy to field them, but I do find it curious. And if anybody saw "Saturday Night Live," you know, maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow.’’

On Universal Healthcare: "It's just that I know that parents who get sick have terrible consequences for their children. So you can insure the children, and then you've got the bread-winner who can't afford health insurance or doesn't have it for him or herself. And in fact, it would be as though Franklin Roosevelt said let's make Social Security voluntary -- that's -- you know, that's -- let's let everybody get in it if they can afford it -- or if President Johnson said let's make Medicare voluntary. "

March 4th: 2 for Obama, 2 for Clinton?

If the primaries were held today, it looks like Texas and Vermont would be in Barack Obama's column and Rhode Island and Ohio would belong to Hillary Clinton. at least if the polls that Real Clear Politics is tracking.

What may be more interesting are the trends in Texas and Ohio where Obama's numbers continue to climb while Clinton's hold steady or decline.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Clinton earning 48% of the Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary vote. That’s unchanged from a week ago. Barack Obama’s support has grown to 43%. That’s up from 40% last week and 38% the week before.

Overall, Clinton’s lead is now just five percentage points in Ohio, down from an eight-point advantage last week and fourteen points two weeks ago.

In Texas, last week, Clinton led Obama by three percentage points. The week before, she had a sixteen-point advantage.

Although Clinton has held on to a very small lead in Texas polling, Rasmussen Markets shows that Obama is favored to win (current prices: Obama 71.8% Clinton 29.7%).

Regardless of who wins next Tuesday, the polls seem to indicate there will be no knock out punches, but more like death by a thousand cuts.

Ohioans "Get" Hillary

This morsel from the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch:

“I really think the people of Ohio get me and get what I’m about,” Clinton
said. “We’re practical people. I’m from the Midwest. It’s kind of like,
‘Show me what you’re going to do.’ The best way to tell what somebody will
do is to find out what they have done. There is a big difference between
speeches and solutions and talk and action.”

So breaking it down, Hillary is from the Midwest and is practical, therefore Ohioans get her.
And, because Obama is about "speeches" and "talk" and Clinton is about "solutions" and "action," voters in Ohio will chose her.

Let's see, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, and Nebraska are all Midwestern states (and presumably full of practical people) and all have gone for Barack Obama. Therefore, Ohioans and Obama should "get" each other too.

Obama also won in Missouri, which as I recall is the "Show Me" state. So it could be argued that Obama also win in states that want "solutions" and "action."

Obama also won in Maine, which, as we have all heard, "As Maine goes, so goes the Nation."

On the other hand a recent study shows Clinton up 21% in the state over Obama. so we will have to wait and see who "gets" more votes.