Early Voting Heavy in Texas and Ohio

Voters in Ohio and Texas apparently understand the importance of their vote in determining next Tuesday's primaries in Texas and Ohio. With early voting closing in Texas today, as of Wednesday, 584,994 Texans in the state's 15 most populous counties had voted Democratic. In Ohio, early voting in six of the largest counties is being compared to the turnout in the 2004 general election.

Also, a judge struck down a county's challenge to Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's Jan. 2, 2008 directive requiring backup paper ballots by boards of elections using touch-screen (direct recording electronic-DRE) voting machines in the March 4 presidential primary election.

The case was brought by Union County commissioners who sought to challenge the secretary's authority to issue the directive, arguing that it unlawfully mandated two types of voting systems.
Calling the secretary's directive one that "merely directs how Union County's existing voting equipment will be used," the judge found that the county commissioners lacked standing to attack the secretary's directive and that the failure of the county board of elections to be a party deprived the court of the ability to proceed on the merits.

Meanwhile in the polls, Barack Obama holds a slight lead on Hillary Clinton in Texas and has almost pulled even in Ohio before contests that could decide their Democratic presidential battle, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll released on Friday.

The contests on Tuesday are crucial for Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady fighting to halt Obama's streak of 11 consecutive victories in their battle for the Democratic nomination for the November 4 presidential election.

Obama, an Illinois senator, has a 6-point edge on Clinton in Texas, 48 percent to 42 percent. He trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage point

If Words Matter...

As I stared out on my "Stop Global Warming" lawn sign which has been mostly covered up by snow this winter, I realized, "Stop Global Climate Change" would have been better, and more accurate, wording. So it is with this in mind, I offer the inspirational words of our two Democratic frontrunners...

Hillary Clinton:
When asked by WISC-TV about the last message she wanted to send Wisconsin voters, Clinton responded, "I have a long relationship with Wisconsin going back to growing up in Chicago, and coming here for vacations and Scout trips and church retreats. I really believe I can be a good president, and have a great working relationship with people like Sen. Russ Feingold, and really bring our country back."

Barack Obama:

"I'm not running to fulfill some long-held ambition. I'm not running because it was somehow owed to me," he added. "I chose to run in this election because of what Dr. King called 'the fierce urgency of now.'

"My faith in the American people has been vindicated," he said, referring to his 1-year-old campaign.

"Everywhere I go, people are standing up. People want something different. . . . Our planet is in peril. People are working harder for less. It's harder to save. It's harder to retire."

The Democrat said he learned this lesson from laid-off steelworkers: "Change in America does not happen from the top down. It happens from the bottom up."

Pineapples and Cheeseheads, It Must Be HA-WI Tuesday

The good folks in Hawaii and Wisconsin get to weigh in on the Democrats tomorrow. And there could be a couple surprises.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Barack Obama with a narrow four-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 43%. Nearly one-fourth of the voters say there’s a good chance they might change their mind. Five percent (5%) of those who currently support Obama and Clinton say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.

Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by twenty-three points among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.

In Hawaii, where no polling has taken place, the state's most powerful Democrat, longtime Senator Daniel Inouye, has endorsed Clinton, as has state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, considered a rising political star here. Nine-term Congressman Neil Abercrombie has endorsed the Illinois senator in the caucus.

Ohioans "Get" Hillary

This morsel from the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch:

“I really think the people of Ohio get me and get what I’m about,” Clinton
said. “We’re practical people. I’m from the Midwest. It’s kind of like,
‘Show me what you’re going to do.’ The best way to tell what somebody will
do is to find out what they have done. There is a big difference between
speeches and solutions and talk and action.”

So breaking it down, Hillary is from the Midwest and is practical, therefore Ohioans get her.
And, because Obama is about "speeches" and "talk" and Clinton is about "solutions" and "action," voters in Ohio will chose her.

Let's see, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, and Nebraska are all Midwestern states (and presumably full of practical people) and all have gone for Barack Obama. Therefore, Ohioans and Obama should "get" each other too.

Obama also won in Missouri, which as I recall is the "Show Me" state. So it could be argued that Obama also win in states that want "solutions" and "action."

Obama also won in Maine, which, as we have all heard, "As Maine goes, so goes the Nation."

On the other hand a recent study shows Clinton up 21% in the state over Obama. so we will have to wait and see who "gets" more votes.

Better Late Than Never: Clinton Wins New Mexico

It's about time--I hope no one demands a recount...

From the Boston Globe:

New Mexico Democratic Party officials announced this afternoon -- nine days
after their caucus -- that Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Barack Obama.

Clinton received 73,105 votes to Obama's 71,396 votes, and her campaign
said she will get 14 of the 26 delegates because of proportional division.

More than 200 volunteers helped with the count, particularly of
provisional ballots, officials said. They said that the turnout nearly reached
150,000 and was the highest in decades for a nominating contest.

The result makes the final count from Super Tuesday 13 states for Obama
and nine for Clinton.

So that means that Clinton picked up two more delegates than Obama.

Prognosticating the Potomac Primaries

With Barack Obama and John McCain expected to take the three primaries today in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia, Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee can score points by beating expectations.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is given better than a 95% chance of winning the Primaries in both Maryland and Virginia (current pricing for Obama to win: Virginia 97.5% Maryland 98.9%). Rasmussen Reports shows Obama with a 26-point lead in Maryland and an 18-point lead in Virginia.

As of a poll taken on 2/8-2/9 by Rasmussen:

• Maryland: Obama leads Clinton 53 percent to 36 percent when you combine strongly decided and leaning voters. It projects Obama winning 38 delegates, Clinton 26 and 6 being too close to call. Margin of error is 1.75 percent.
• Virginia: Obama leads 51 percent to 34 percent among strong and leaning voters. Margin of error is 1.48 percent. The poll projects Obama winning 45 delegates to Clinton's 32 with 6 too close to call.
• District of Columbia: Obama leads 63 percent to 27 percent, with the margin of error 2.82 percent. Obama wins 10 delegates to Clinton's 4, with 1 too close to call.

On the Republican side, McCain is given a better than 90% chance of winning in both Maryland and Virginia (current pricing for McCain to win: Virginia 86.1% Maryland 95.9%). The biggest prize is Virginia, which offers 63 delegates on a winner-take-all basis.

Obama's Hope Wins Big in SC

With 99% of the counties reporting, Barack Obama scored a decisive win in South Carolina by garnering 55% of the popular vote while Hillary Clinton got 27% and John Edwards won 18%.

The big story within the story may be the impressive turnout, which was almost double the turnout from the 2004 primary. Amo0ng the press, the story centers around race.

Going into the first Super Tuesday, the question will be, is this win due to the large turn out of African Americans in South Carolina (who make up 55% of the Democratic electorate in the state), of which Obama registered 78% of the vote or a combination of factors including young, affluent white voters voting solidly for him? The leader of the pack "O"-mentum has now swung in his direction.

For the Clinton camp, there is little good that came from finishing a distant second in the state, and for Edwards, the take away for him is that he did particularly well among white males and white voters who made up their minds within three days of the primary according to the Washington Post.

One clear message from last night's primary is that Obama can win in the south and this may carry him further in the minds of unconvinced Democrats than any other fact.

There is no ignoring that the Democrats are running against history and it is becoming clearer that the kind of change Democratic primary voters want looks less like John Edwards and more like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The larger looming question is that the change that the majority of voters in the November election are also ready for?

Russ Feingold on the Presidential Race

Wisconsin's Senator Russ Feingold, who I respect for his progressive views has a take on the Democratic presidential candidates--remember Feingold was thinking about taking a run at it himself. He throws stones at John Edwards, but he is factually correct on Edward's voting record.

Feingold said in the Appleton Post-Crescent

I did notice that as the primaries heated up, all of a sudden, all the presidential candidates — none of whom voted with me on the timeframe to withdraw from Iraq — all voted with me when we did the Patriot Act stuff.

The one that is the most problematic is (John) Edwards, who voted for the Patriot Act, campaigns against it. Voted for No Child Left Behind, campaigns against it. Voted for the China trade deal, campaigns against it. Voted for the Iraq war … He uses my voting record exactly as his platform, even though he had the opposite voting record.

When you had the opportunity to vote a certain way in the Senate and you didn't, and obviously there are times when you make a mistake, the notion that you sort of vote one way when you're playing the game in Washington and another way when you're running for president, there's some of that going on.

On whether he'll make an endorsement in the Feb. 19 Wisconsin primary

Probably not. I'm having a hard time deciding between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as are many people. Those are the two I take the most seriously.

I go back and forth, to be honest with you. I'm torn on this whole issue of who's more likely to be progressive and really seek change vs. who's ready to do the job today. It really is a true dilemma in my mind.

With regard to those votes, Edwards has been on record for apologizing for his vote on giving the President the authority to attack Iraq and for his vote on the original PATRIOT ACT (and his subsequent support to modify the latter to make it less onerous).

With respect to NCLB, both Edwards and Senator Clinton voted for it and both support pre-K enrichment and bettering metrics for measuring student success.

The harder point for Edwards to defense is his support of the China trade agreement. An article from MSN addresses this:

Edwards explained that his state would benefit because China would cut its tariffs on North Carolina’s poultry, pork and tobacco.

Edwards acknowledged that North Carolina’s textile and apparel workers would face increased pressure.

While the China trade legislation included an “anti-surge” proviso designed to stem a flood of imports, Edwards was quite candid in 2000 in acknowledging that “it does us no good to pretend that these remedies are perfect and that people will not be hurt.”

Asked again whether he regretted his 2000 vote, he said, “Bringing them into the world trading community, subject to rules, makes some sense. But it doesn’t make any sense if you don’t enforce their responsibilities and don’t hold them accountable for their violations of those responsibilities.”

He then proceeded to denounce the Chinese for building up their military, for their too cozy relations with Sudan and Iran, and for “devastating the environment” by building one coal-fired power plant every week.

Kerry v. Clinton: Nevada Caucus Skirmish

Heavyweights Bill Clinton and John Kerry acted as infighting surrogates on a last minute lawsuit by plaintiffs with alleged connections to the Hillary Clinton campaign intended to prevent some service workers from caucusing at select Nevada casinos.

Former President Clinton argued that the casino caucuses were deliberately set up to have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the contest. Clinton said, "Do you really believe that all the Democrats understood that they had agreed to give everybody who voted in a casino a vote worth five times as much as people who voted in their own precinct? Did you know that?"

Clinton is referring to a decision last March by the Nevada Democratic Party to have special at-large caucus sites to allow those service workers to participate in the caucus. The Culinary Workers Union, who represents those workers was involved in pushing for the sites.

Meanwhile former presidential candidate and current Barack Obama supporter, John Kerry, accused those who brought the lawsuit of attempting to disenfranchise voters. Said Kerry, "Mere days before the caucus, we now see a lawsuit to shut down those at-large sites and deny the casino workers their right to vote. Three of the plaintiffs voted for the very plan they’re now trying to block – reasonable people have guessed they’re changing their minds presumably because just a few days ago the Culinary Workers Union endorsed Barack Obama."

For their part, both Obama and Hillary Clinton are distancing themselves. Hillary Clinton said she is aware of the lawsuit, but hopes it "can be resolved by the courts and the state party because, obviously, we want as many people as possible to be able to participate. ... In the meantime, I'm just going to campaign as hard as I can here in Nevada."

Obama, at a Culinary Union event Sunday, said the rules were fine until the union decided "'I'm going to support the outsider, I'm going to support the guy who's standing with the working people instead of the big shots.'"

"You don't win an election and you don't serve democracy by trying to keep people out," Obama said. "You're supposed to try to bring them in and encourage everybody to get involved."

Quotes from the AP, the NY Sun, and TPM Cafe

SoCar Not Bouncing for Clinton...Yet

According to Rasmussen Reports

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Barack Obama continuing to hold a double digit-lead over Hillary Clinton in the January 26th Primary Election. The survey, conducted the night after Clinton’s stunning victory in New Hampshire, shows no bounce for the victor. In fact, there is virtually no change in the numbers at all. It’s Obama 42% Clinton 30%. John Edwards attracts 15% of the vote, Bill Richardson picked up 2% and 10% were not sure. Richardson has since dropped out of the race for the White House.

I'd give it a couple more days and see how the trend is shaping. With Richardson out of the race (wih 2% of South Carolinians supporting him) and 10% undecided, it is wide open.

Hillary Clinton: The Reports of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

Mark Twain once said, "the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." Hillary Clinton is hearing similar eulogies from folks like Dick Morris, the Drudge Report, Joe Trippi , but her own husband?



Dampening expectations is a time honored political maneuver that is brilliant when it works, as it did for Bill Clinton in 1992 in New Hampshire. Clearly the HRC campaign would love for Clinton to be the Comeback-Not-a-Kid, but the voters in New Hampshire hold the key.

Meanwhile Obama is soaring and Clinton is sinking in the latest polls. John Edwards is holding steady, rising, and falling depending on which poll you look at.

Finally, how is the candidate herself holding up? As reported in the NY Times, she told a supporter in New Hampshire today, "I have so many ideas for this country, I just don’t want to see us fall backwards,” she said, her eyes visibly wet, as a row of news photographers began snapping away to capture the moment. “It’s about our country, it’s about our kids’ futures.”

“Some of us are right some of us are wrong,” she continued, firming up a bit — and sounding, some reporters felt, either angry or resentful about Senator Barack Obama. “Some of us are ready, and some of us are not. Some of us know what we’ll do on day one and some of us don’t.”