Hope Takes a Turn to the Center?

With the appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and keeping on Robert Gates as the Secretary of Defense, a clear message is being sent by Team Obama to those that believed he would shift the country to the left. While Hillary Clinton is no Alexander Haig, she is likely to be less progressive in leading the State Department than some, including myself, would like. Couple her with Robert Gates and more moderate Democrats and Republicans are going to rest easier in the transition period.

Still, is this the change that Obama supporters expected? What these moves seem to indicate is that President-elect Obama is a pragmatist and is not willing to waste his political capital coming out of the gate. In this time of uncertainty he seems to be choosing to inspire calm by making safer, more calculated choices.

As he did in his campaign, Obama is building a core around himself that will allow him to lead from his strengths--calm resolve, well-turned phrases and themes, and executing legislation with calculation.

Does this apparent turn to easing the anxiety of the middle mean he won't accomplish his more progressive agenda? No, it means he is working on the middle to trust his judgment. If he is successful at doing this, it will be easier to accomplish the more difficult tasks that lie further ahead. Developing things like a new energy policy that is far greener than anything we've seen, investing in the infrastructure to create the new economy and transportation options we need, and moving us closer to a health care system that covers all of us--these are longer term battles to be waged. But to do this, the Obama team needs us to simmer down so that we can embrace the change he campaigned to bring.

Vilsack Says Obama is the Nominee

CNN reports that former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said Sunday it's time for Hillary Clinton to acknowledge she has lost her bid for the Democratic nomination.

Vilsack, who was briefly a presidential candidate himself last year, told the Associated Press it's "pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee."

"After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him," Vilsack also said.

Vilsack first announced he was running for president in November, 2006, but dropped his bid three months later after the Democrat failed to drum up a significant level of support or raise the necessary campaign funds needed to compete. He endorsed Clinton shortly after and played a key role in the New York senator's unsuccessful Iowa campaign effort.

His comments came the same day the Clinton showed signs she plans to press on after Tuesday's contests — continuing argue she has won the popular vote and that the party's superdelegates are able to switch their allegiances before the convention in August.

Barack and Hillary: Enough Already

Jimmy Breslin once wrote a book called "The Gang Who Couldn't Shoot Straight" and it offers a cautionary tale to the Democratic Party's dueling twosome to stop poisoning the well of goodwill that the country has had toward the party. It is true that the race for the nomination has been one of historic proportions and clearly Hillary Clinton has worked doggedly for the nomination, as has Barack Obama. However, the tank is on empty and it is time for Sen. Clinton to pull off the road.

It is now time to coalesce as a party and begin to gear up for the fall campaign. Barack Obama has earned the party's nomination and it is especially important that he campaign vigorously in those areas where he has not had the support that Hillary Clinton has had. It is important for Hillary Clinton's massive contribution to the dialogue to be acknowledged and to have a significant role for her in the party going forward.

It is one thing for party leaders to say they will unite and quite another for embittered partisans to dust themselves off and fully support the party's candidate, particularly one that has been bloodied by their efforts. If ever there was a time for Democrats to put aside differences, this is it. John McCain is not Bob Dole. He will be formidable and will grab some M.O.R. voters because of his gravitas. The winning path for Barack Obama is to keep pointing out what Bill Clinton took to the bank when he was elected, "It's the Economy, Stupid."

John McCain may try to distance himself from George Bush, but he can't run away from the fact that Republican policies have tanked the stock market, the housing market, and the job market. People do see the connection between the war and the economy, but it is the economy that they feel every day.

So enough already, the press needs a new story to report. Don't use the convention to show how dysfunctional a family the Democratic party can be. Use it to pull together and show that the Democratic party is ready to lead on Day 1--Yes, We Can!

Hillary Wins With Hilltoppers

The Rumors of Hillary Clinton's political death have been staved off for this week by a very strong showing in West Virginia where she pounded Barack Obama by a 2/3's margin. Her proposal to defer the federal tax on gasoline over the summer was one issue that resonated with voters in the state with the 6th highest poverty rate in the nation. In addition, it is a highly blue-collar state with an aging population which is the demographic that Hillary appeals to best.

For Barack Obama, it demonstrated a weakness among an older core of mostly white, populist issue leaning Democrats. West Virginia's voting cohort is 34% over 65. As it compares to states like Iowa, where the over 65 group was 22%, Obama will need to be more concrete to gain their trust.

McGovern Switches Sides, Calls For Clinton to End Bid

I was at the Johnson County Democratic gathering last October where George McGovern pledged his support for Hillary Clinton.

At the time he said, "She seems to have a greater feel for the problems of the country. She gets stronger all the time," McGovern told the crowd at an Iowa City Democratic event that drew a crowd estimated at 1,800 people. "I think that if we can elect her president, she'll be a greater president even than her brilliant husband."

McGovern concluded, "We have an old rule of courtesy in the United States: Ladies first."

Clearly McGovern has rethought his position and has now pledged his support for Senator Obama saying, "It certainly was not out of any less respect for Sen. Clinton," McGovern said. "I think she has waged a really courageous and valiant campaign. ... But I think mathematically the race is all but won by Barack Obama and the time has come for all of us to unite and get ready for the general election in the fall."

Is It Over or Full Speed Ahead?

Barack Obama won a decisive victory in North Carolina by slightly less than 230,000 votes last night and Hillary Clinton has won in Indiana by slightly more than 22,000 votes, so where does it leave things? If the statements of the candidates count for anything, it looks like more of the same all the way to the convention. The sad thing is that there is no legitimate way for either candidate to win the nomination outright without the influence of the superdelegates who may be more likely to use "electability" as determined by polling to affect their decision-making.

As a John Edwards supporter, we learned first hand that electability as measured by polls is hardly reliable. Remember that Hillary Clinton began as the "most electable" until she lost in Iowa. One of the tacts that Edwards supporters used was the idea that John Edwards was the most electable of the Democrats over any of the Republican candidates. As Edwards' campaign ran out of cash, it was clear that the logic didn't hold sway with voters who could have chosen to keep donating.

However superdelegates are party insiders who could be swayed by polls. It is my sincere hope that if the Democratic party hopes to hold itself together that the popular vote and earned delegates will be more influential than the limitations of polling which frankly is a snapshot in time, not a predictor of long-term outcomes.

Pain in the Gas

FactCheck does a good job of explaining the problems with McCain, Clinton gas plan. Oh, and George Bush still wants to do oil exploration in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge...

Hillary Clinton and John McCain are offering overburdened motorists a federal "gasoline tax holiday." But economists say that the proposal is unlikely to actually lower the price of gasoline. McCain's plan would essentially give federal funds to oil refineries, while the net effect of Clinton's plan probably wouldn't be much at all, although it would create a lot of new administrative work.

President Bush took another tack, dusting off a couple of golden oldies that he said would help halt the escalation in motorists' costs: allowing companies to drill for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and encouraging construction of more refineries.

But opening up ANWR would lead to a negligible bump in world oil supply, and would provide barely five percent of what the U.S. consumes today. The spigot wouldn't even be fully opened until the mid 2020's -- if Congress acts now, which isn't at all likely. And Bush fails to acknowledge that investors aren't interested in building refineries for strong business reasons that go beyond the tangled permitting process.

Analysis
In a week that saw furious truckers steer their rigs to the nation's capital for a horn-blaring war dance over escalating fuel prices, President Bush and two candidates who want his job were offering proposals that are unlikely to provide any real comfort to motorists.

More here

What Would Steve Martin Do?

I'm reading Steve Martin's autobiography called "Born Standing Up" and am enjoying his straight-forward telling of his rise from Knott's Berry Farms magician to the "Wild and Crazy Guy" that most people my age came to know. One of the remarkable things that he discusses was his process of going from a comic/magician/musician/actor/juggler to Steve Martin.

He looked at himself and realized that his external world was not matching up to his internal philosophy about what made life's work meaningful to him and he intentionally started from scratch. That is to say he reinvented his act around the notion that he waned to be authentically original and not emulating other comics.

As time has shown, he was hugely successful in that endeavor.

So what would Steve Martin do If he were looking at the Democrats--which he probably is, just the same as we all are?

I think he would be encouraging Barack Obama to remember how he entered the race for the nomination--continue pushing the ideas that would help us be a more hopeful nation and for Hillary Clinton, I think he would encourage her to show her true self-- not be knock-off of some other politician.

We are sorely in need of an authentic leader, we've had enough of someone playing the part as written.

Man, I Feel Like a Woman

This is just sloppy for a campaign to do, but funny...

CNN reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign released a list of 100 North Carolina “Women for Hillary” Tuesday, featuring 98 of the state’s most prominent Democratic women – and two men with gender-neutral names: Dana Cope,president of the State Employees’ Association of North Carolina, and Ashley Thrift, a Winston-Salem lawyer and chief of staff to former North Carolina Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings.

Clinton and Obama in Statistical Tie in PA

On the CNN Ticker

Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of Pennsylvania has dwindled to 4 points, a CNN average of recent polls calculated Thursday shows.

The New York senator now holds a 4 point advantage over her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, 46 to 42 percent. Twelve percent of likely Democratic voters there remain unsure.

Recent CNN "poll of polls" suggest the race in Pennsylvania is tightening before the state's April 22 primary. A poll of polls calculated two days ago showed Clinton with a 6 point lead in Pennsylvania, and a poll of polls last Friday showed her on top by 11 points.

Added to this news, an AP poll says Barack Obama's lead over John McCain in a hypothetical match-up has evaporated, according to a just released Associated Press poll.

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are now statistically tied with McCain, suggesting the Arizona senator may be benefiting from the drawn out Democratic primary race.

In the latest survey, Clinton holds a 48-45 percent lead over McCain while Obama and McCain are even at 45 percent. Factoring the poll's 3 point margin of error, both Democrats are even with the presumptive Republican nominee.

Clinton Chief Strategist Steps Down...Sort Of

Mark Penn, whose firm's relationship to the South American nation of Colombia has been called into question, has resigned as Hillary Clinton's chief strategist. However his consulting firm will still be retained by Clinton's campaign.

Friday, Penn acknowledged he had a meeting with the Colombian ambassador to the United States earlier in the week in his role as his firm's (Burson-Marstellers) chief to discuss the pending U.S.-Colombia trade pact, which Clinton has been highly critical of on the stump.

Clinton's campaign had paid Penn's political consulting firm, Penn, Schoen and Berland, more than $6 million by the end of February and owed the firm $2.5 million, according to her campaign finance reports.

Story Doesn't Add Up... Again

After being pummeled for here story about being under sniper fire in Bosnia which didn't add up, Hillary Clinton once again was in deep trouble, but this time for repeating a story told to her by a sheriff's deputy.

Meigs County sheriff's Deputy Bryan Holman met with Clinton when she visited southeast Ohio ahead of the state's March 4 primary. He told her he had heard the story of Trina Bachtel, who died in August. Clinton took the story and made it part of her stump speech, using it as recently as late Friday, at a rally in Grand Forks, N.D.Here's video

ABC reports:

For the second time in recent days, Sen. Hillary Clinton has had to drop a story from her stump speech after being challenged on its accuracy.
Hospital denies Hillary Clinton's story of pregnant woman denied health care.

For the past month, the New York senator liked to tell the tale of a pregnant woman who was denied health care from an Ohio hospital because she did not have $100 the hospital demanded to treat her. After being turned away, the woman was brought back to the hospital days later with severe complications. She had to be rushed to another facility for advanced treatment, but it was too late. Both the woman and the baby died, Clinton told her audiences.

The hospital, which was never named in Clinton's speeches, objected this weekend, saying it wasn't true and demanded that Clinton stop telling it.

The Clinton campaign told ABC News today that the candidate heard the story from a deputy sheriff and had no reason to doubt the story.

"If the hospital claims it didn't happen that way, we certainly respect that and she won't repeat the story," said Clinton spokeswoman Mo Elleithee.

Obama Gains New Endorsements, Takes in $40 Million

In addition to Barack Obama's campaign raising more than $40 million in March, giving him a substantial financial advantage over Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton as they compete for votes heading into the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, he has also received two more important endorsements in remaining primary states that could prove helpful to his march toward the nomination.

Highly respected former Indiana congressman Lee Hamilton, the top Democrat on the 9/11 Commission, endorsed Obama on Wednesday, as did Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a former Clinton administration appointee. This is on the heels of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar announcing her support for Obama on Monday, and earlier high-profile endorsements by Pennsylvania Sen. Robert Casey and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina former John Edwards strategist, Joe Trippi said, "I really believe May 6 has the potential to be everything. Every day you see increased pressure on Hillary Clinton about why she's staying in, and if she could win in North Carolina it would shut down that kind of talk and open up the possibility she could get there" to the nomination."

Clinton Pennsylvania Lead Dwindling

According to Rasmussen Reports:

Senator Hillary Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Primary is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%. Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries.

Tensions clearly remain in the contest. If Obama is nominated, just 56% of Clinton supporters say they are likely to vote for him against John McCain. Forty percent (40%) of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania say they are not likely to vote for Obama.

On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are not.

Superdelegates: We're the Deciders

What if the superdelegates had a convention and decided whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party nominee? The trial balloon is out there. But, as Democrats, will the party rank and file feel that the party nominee is the result of backroom dealing, rather than democracy in action?

From McClatchy News via Truthout

Democrats, looking for a way out, are pondering a new idea: an unprecedented "mini convention" to bring their punishing presidential season to an early close.

The proposal surfaced during another week of pushing and shoving between the Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns and a growing concern that the party may be hurting itself beyond repair.

Without some resolution, they fret, Republican John McCain will win the presidency.

"If we continue down the path we are on, we might as well hand the keys of the White House to John McCain," said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo.

The mini-convention would bring together nearly 800 superdelegates after the last primaries are held in early June.

Given the current math, superdelegates - party officials and elected leaders - will decide the nomination, one way or another.

"There would be a final opportunity for the candidates to make their arguments to these delegates, and then one transparent vote," Tennessee Gov. Philip Bredesen suggested in the New York Times.

Superdelegates, both pledged and unpledged, reacted cautiously to the idea. But they all agreed that something needed to be done to bridge the growing gap between Clinton and Obama supporters.

"We've got to stop the bickering that's going on," said Leila Medley of Jefferson City, Mo., an uncommitted superdelegate. "There's no doubt about that."

"While you trade barbs, McCain is uniting the Republican Party," U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon wrote both campaigns in mid-March. "In the next six weeks, McCain can sit back, amass his war chest, concentrate his base and delight as you deconstruct each other."

That outcome seemed unthinkable just weeks ago, when record voter turnouts, the ongoing Iraq war, a slumping economy and a fat bank account convinced many Democrats they had a clear path to the presidency.

But new polls tell a different story: Some last week showed McCain beating Obama and Clinton, after he trailed both candidates just two weeks ago.

A focus on race and gender hasn't helped. Neither did more name-calling after Florida's Democrats, then Michigan's, failed to reach agreement on a plan to seat their disputed delegates.

And the party still hasn't figured out how its superdelegates should vote - as independent agents or as a reflection of the popular vote.

"It seems to me if we have a nominee come Labor Day with a very deeply divided party and morally exhausted party, I think we have a problem," Bredesen said.

He promised any superdelegate gathering would be "tight" and "businesslike," helping the party avoid "brutal and unnecessary warfare" this summer.

Obama called it "interesting." Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Charles Schumer of New York said the idea might have merit. Clinton, Bredesen said, did not reject the idea.

But several rank-and-file superdelegates in Kansas and Missouri called the trial balloon a lot of hot air.

"I'm sure there are a number of us who would get beat up behind closed doors," Medley said. "I think what we need to do is get the two of them in a room."

On the Serious: What Was Gordon Fischer Thinking?

Gordon Fischer, a former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party and part of Barack Obama's Iowa support team, entered the realm of the detestable over the weekend railing against Bill Clinton's equally silly comments over the weekend that a race between Sen. John McCain and Hillary Clinton would be a contest between two people who love their country.

Fischer said:

"When Joe McCarthy questioned others' patriotism, McCarthy (1) actually believed, at least aparently (sic), the questions were genuine, and (2) he did so in order to build up, not tear down, his own party, the GOP," Fischer, wrote on his blog

"Bill Clinton cannot possibly seriously believe Obama is not a patriot, and cannot possibly be said to be helping -- instead he is hurting -- his own party. B. Clinton should never be forgiven. Period. This is a stain on his legacy, much worse, much deeper, than the one on Monica's blue dress."

Both campaigns need to cool down the rhetoric. This campaign he said/she said resembles rival high schools on game day. And seriously, Iowans deserve better than this.

Fischer, normally a gentleman has come forward andissued an apology.

Of Course, compared to James Carville's "Judas" statement about Bill Richardson...

Obama Wins Handily in Mississippi

Barack Obama, as expected, won the Mississippi primary 61% to 37%. Meanwhile, the state party leaders in Texas have announced that the final tally of the Texas caucuses (The second step, in the "Teaxas Two Step" primary and caucus process) will be announced on March 29. With 41% of the counties caucuses polled, Obama leads 56% to 44% over Hillary Clinton).

With his win in Mississippi, Obama has 1,596 delegates, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton has 1,484, according to The Associated Press count.

The popular vote tally is complicated. Blake Fleetwood at the Huffington Post reports that "Obama has the lead in the delegates and in the popular vote, but that is not exactly true as far as the votes are concerned, according to Clinton supporters. The figures from NBC are:

Including Florida And Michigan, Clinton wins by 30,657:
Clinton 13,521,832
Obama 13,497,175

In the Approved Contests Obama wins by 598,266:
Obama 12,920,961
Clinton 12,322,695

With Florida, where both were on the ballot, Obama wins by 303,494
Obama 13,497,175
Clinton 13,193,681"

With it 99.9% likely that Michigan and Florida will have mail-in "do over" primaries, Obama's and Clinton's campaigns are going to have their work cut out to wrap up the delegates ahead of the convention.

Mississippi Democrats Say: Hey, Eyes Over Here!

The continued drama of embattled New York Governor Eliot Spitzer will likely dim the glare of the media on the campaign trail for today's Mississippi primary. However, Mississippi Democrats are deciding the last in a series presidential contests between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton before the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd.

With 33 delegates at stake and Clinton's camp saying she has little chance in Mississippi, and his win in Wyoming over the weekend, it is an opportunity for Obama to get back on a roll that demonstrates his campaign's wide ranging support and reframe the discussion of who is the Democratic front-runner.

Democratic Theater: Hope Takes a Holiday or Hat's Off to Hillary

Apparently when it is 3 A.M. in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, voters hoped Hillary Clinton was there to answer the phone at the White House. After being all but counted out, Team Clinton scored yet another win in the big delegate states further casting doubt as to whom the nomination will eventually go.

In what can only be described as a disappointing night with a single primary victory in Howard Dean's home state, Vermont, Barack Obama's camp will look to wins in Wyoming and Mississippi in the lead up to the next big delegate state, Pennsylvania.

It will be interesting to see what strategy Obama's campaign uses to counterpunch the effectiveness of Clinton's message that worked so well among voters in bellweather state Ohio and Texas. Clinton's "where's the beef" message combined with who would be better in a crisis message resonated with voters who are concerned not only with Iraq, but also with jobs and the economy.

While the delegate count will keep Obama slightly ahead, the all important, intangible-- momentum has shifted to HRC and the onus is on Obama to make a come back. I would guess that his campaign will have to work hard to show how experience is not always a good thing and how Obama would tackle the economy, as well as end the war.

Also, with the Republican nominee decided, how will John McCain factor into deciding who the Democrats put up against him. With four victories last night, McCain earned the crown of Republican standard bearer. His mission will be two-fold, keep his name in the papers by commenting on the Democratic Party race and selecting a V.P. candidate that will help secure "the base" in the Fall.

It's 3 AM and Hillary and Barack Must Be Lonely

Matchbox Twenty should probably accuse the Clinton camp of lifting their song "3 AM" to create the latest salvo against Barack Obama. And Obama's camp responds (apparently also at 3 am.)



As a bonus, Ned Lamont shows why he lost to Joe Lieberman