Iraq War: Deja Vu All Over Again

Rasmussen Reports latest survey shows that short-term optimism about the Iraq War has decreased over the past month. Compared to 38% last month, 33% now say the situation in Iraq will get better in the next six months. Still, this is the sixth consecutive month in which a plurality believes things are getting better in Iraq. Last July, voters believed things were getting worse by a two-to-one margin.

Similarly, long-term optimism has fallen slightly over the past month. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Likely Voters now say history will deem the U.S. mission in Iraq a success a three-point decrease from last month. Nearly half (48%) say the mission will be considered a failure, which is a three point increase from last month. Forty percent (40%) of Likely Voters say the United States is safer today than it was before 9/11 while 43% say it is not.

Just 31% say Bush has done a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq. Nearly half (47%) disagree and give him a poor rating. A separate survey has consistently found that roughly six-out-of-ten Americans would like to see the troops brought home from Iraq within a year.

SoCar Not Bouncing for Clinton...Yet

According to Rasmussen Reports

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Barack Obama continuing to hold a double digit-lead over Hillary Clinton in the January 26th Primary Election. The survey, conducted the night after Clinton’s stunning victory in New Hampshire, shows no bounce for the victor. In fact, there is virtually no change in the numbers at all. It’s Obama 42% Clinton 30%. John Edwards attracts 15% of the vote, Bill Richardson picked up 2% and 10% were not sure. Richardson has since dropped out of the race for the White House.

I'd give it a couple more days and see how the trend is shaping. With Richardson out of the race (wih 2% of South Carolinians supporting him) and 10% undecided, it is wide open.

Depends on How the Pie is Sliced: Latest Rasmussen Report

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus finds that Hillary Clinton is supported by 31% of Likely Caucus Participants. Barack Obama earns the vote from 27% and John Edwards is the top choice for 22%.

However, among those who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus, it gets a bit closer—Clinton 29% Obama 28% and Edwards 22%.

Among those who have participated in the caucus before it’s Obama 26% Clinton 25% and Edwards 24%.

Slight adjustments to the expected turnout produces a variety of results, but none that show a clear leader in the race.

Adding to the closeness of the race are the second choice rankings. Edwards is the second choice for 28% while Obama is the number two pick for 22%. Clinton and Bill Richardson are the second choice for 15%. Second choices are important for two reasons. First, because 26% of Likely Caucus Participants say they might change their mind. This includes 8% who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.

Additionally, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote in a particular setting, their supporters will be re-allocated to other candidates.

These results are generally similar to those from a week ago and the overall message is the same—it is still quite possible for any of the three leading candidates to emerge victorious. The caucus victor will be the candidate who does the best job of getting her or his supporters to the caucus sites.

Edwards Stronger Head to Head Against Republicans

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_edwards_vs_giuliani_and_thompson

Former Senator John Edwards now attracts 50% support in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey matching him with former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He leads Giuliani 50% to 41%. The poll also shows Edwards with a ten-point advantage over former Senator Fred Thompson, 49% to 39%.

One interesting twist to this year’s early Presidential polling is that Edwards typically outperforms other leading Democratic hopefuls in general election match-ups but remains a distant third in the competition for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. This seems to have impaired his fundraising and Edwards recently decided to accept public funding. The move subjects his campaign to strict spending limits that many political observers believe will handicap his efforts.

Still, Edwards currently leads the top four Republican candidates by an average of nearly nine points.

Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton leads the top GOP hopefuls by an average of six points while Barack Obama holds an average lead of five points (see a summary of general election match-ups and other key stats for all Democratic and Republican candidates).