Iowa, according to most polls, is the swing state that has most definitively swung. In 2000 Al Gore won its seven electoral votes by 0.3 percentage points; George Bush won them by 0.7 points in 2004. But Barack Obama currently leads John McCain by about 12 points. The McCain campaign insists the race is closer than that, and Mr McCain visited the state on October 11th and twice in September. His efforts are unlikely to be enough.
It goes on to say there are three reasons why Obama is likely to win our state:
First, Iowa has been turning steadily to the left. In 2006 Democrats won majorities in the state House and state Senate. They also seized two congressional seats that had been held by Republicans since the 1970s.
Second, Mr Obama is beloved in Iowa. After he announced his candidacy in Illinois, he travelled immediately across the state border to campaign in Iowa. He returned again and again, often to hostile territory, and built a huge campaign machine.
The third factor helping Mr Obama is that he has diligently wooed rural voters; he has 50 offices in Iowa compared to Mr McCain’s 16. Last October he unveiled a rural strategy, which includes encouraging young farmers, supporting rural businesses and improving rural health care.
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