UI Poll Shows Support for Obama By Registered Young Voters, If They Vote

In the national poll of 796 voters conducted Oct. 5-18, registered voters 35 or younger favored Obama over John McCain by a 26-point margin -- much more substantial than his five-point lead with voters age 36-54 and nine-point lead among those 55-70. McCain led by five points with voters 70 and over.

Eighty-four percent of the younger voters said they are absolutely certain they will vote. While that percentage is high, it's still lower than the older age groups, in which 86 to 90 percent said they would definitely vote.

"Clearly, younger voters overwhelmingly support Obama. If they show up in record numbers, they will decidedly tip the scale toward an Obama victory," said Hawkeye Poll Director David Redlawsk, associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. "But if they fail to turn out, the final result is likely to be very close."

Less than 40 percent of younger voters are paying close attention to the election, compared to 53 percent of those 35-54, 61 percent of those 55-69, and 72 percent of those 70 and older.

"By historical standards, the level of interest is extremely high across all ages. But those under 35 are much less likely to be tracking the election closely," Redlawsk said. "This suggests they're less engaged -- and perhaps less likely to turn out, because those who pay attention are more likely to vote."

Survey has much more to say. And it is here.

Dem State Convention Postponed

From David Redlawsk:

You should have already seen email and/or received a phone call on this, but the Iowa State Democratic Convention this weekend has been postponed due to the floods.

The Party has not yet announced a rescheduled date, but says they will soon.

Hope all is well with each of you.

Dave

Apparently Partial Ignorance is Bliss

From the Press-Citizen

A University of Iowa political science professor has won an award for a book he co-authored.
The book, "How Voters Decide: Information Processing During Election Campaigns" argues that informed voters don't always do the best voting.

"Voters who don't try to learn everything vote better," said associate professor David Redlawsk, whose co-authored book won the Alexander George Book Award from the International Society for Political Psychology.

Redlawsk and Richard Lau of Rutgers University received the award at a July 6 conference in Portland, Ore. The award is given to the best book published in the past year in the field of political psychology, an area that fuses psychology with political science.

"Voters encounter a lot of information during campaigns, and we were interested in what kind of information they encounter and use," he said.

Redlawsk Gets a Mention From CNN

University of Iowa Political Science Professor and former Chair of FAIR! , David Redlawsk, was quoted on the CNN web in a story about polling that shows no true frontrunner for the Republicans.

"Democrats are reasonably comfortable with the range of choices. The Democratic attitude is that three or four of these guys would be fine," David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist. "The Republicans don't have that; particularly among the conservatives there's a real split. They just don't see candidates who reflect their interests and who they also view as viable."