The Privilege to Vote: Why Democracy Is in Trouble

Philosophically and legally, all law abiding citizens have the right to vote.In practice though, it is a privilege to be a voter. The right to vote assumes that everyone has free access to casting a vote, possesses the same knowledge of how, when, and where to vote, and believes that voting is fundamentally important or even patriotic to do. I will try to demonstrate that, while all of these things are worth striving for, the truth is voter turnout has some interesting trends that help to make my point.

As everyone who follows voter ID (VID) laws is likely aware, the more hoops that you put in front of a person to vote, the less likely it is that he ir she will do so. In fact, while proponents of VID laws stress it is to protect the sanctity of the election, it serves more to disenfranchise voters largely across accessibility and economic lines. Make registration time consuming or documentation intensive, less people register. Wired points out that of 3.6% of white people lack the "approved" credentials to vote while 7.5% of black people did. With regard to disability, according to American Association of People with Disabilities, voter registration was 2% lower for those with disabilities than for others and voter turnout for those with disabilities (who make up 1/6 of all voters) was 6% lower than among all other voters. Whether this is attributable to VID or other variables is speculative.

Secondly, information about when and where to vote is often attached to communications and how and to whom things are communicated. Many election boards have adopted state-wide voter information systems that work for those with smartphones and computers, but are not helpful for those who don't. Canvassing for votes tends to be much higher in certain precincts than others, typically high minority precincts, so again, another means of communicating information is not there.Also, canvassing has a very small impact on voting behavior. As Alan Gerber opined in the NY Times, "When the findings of 51 canvassing experiments were pooled together, the results showed that a successful effort to contact a voter produces a 4.3 percentage point increase in the probability the voter will cast a ballot. But this overstates the impact of the intervention: Typically, when a campaign canvasses a neighborhood, most door knocks go unanswered. If a standard canvassing effort reaches only 25 percent of the intended targets, then the overall effect on the target group’s turnout is just 1 percentage point. An increase of this size could make the difference in a close election, but it suggests that even a huge canvassing outreach would have a small effect on turnout."

Lastly, many people choose not to vote for many reasons, but chief among them is the value they see in doing so. A lot of my progressive friends like early voting. However, studies have shown that early voting actually may lead to decreased voting numbers. In addition voting may vary by how diverse the district is. A study by a University of Indiana researcher showed these interesting results:

• Having a political candidate of the same race or ethnicity on the ballot does not, by itself, prompt a larger voter turnout among minority groups.
• Turnout is often greater for minority voters when they live in a congressional district where their racial or ethnic group represents the majority of the citizen voting-age population (CVAP). For black and Hispanic voters specifically, turnouts are higher when each group makes up a larger portion of the electorate – regardless of the race of the candidates listed on the ballot.
• When no black congressional candidate is on the ballot, the general-election turnout for black voters is, on average, 40 percent in a district where black people make up 10 percent of the citizen voting-age population. The turnout is considerably higher — an average of 49.3 percent  — in a district where black people are 50 percent of the voting-age population.
• In the absence of a Hispanic candidate, the general-election turnout for Hispanic voters is 6.4 percentage points higher in a voting district where Hispanic people make up 40 percent of the voting-age population compared to a district where they comprise 10 percent of the voting-age population.

Pew Research surveyed those who did not vote in the 2016 presidential election and learned that the main reasons for not voting were dislike for the candidates and/or the campaign issues, didn't think their vote mattered/disinterested or were too busy or had conflicts with work or school schedules. More information is in the charts below, including trends from prior years.

There are many possible solutions to this problem, mail-in voting options, a national election day, weekend voting, mobile voting stations among them. As always, it is important to reflect on why things are the way they are and who is motivated to change them. Without addressing this, democracy is for the privileged.

Potentially More Devastating than Citizen's United

The House last week just approved a bill that any progressive or supporter of separation of church and state should be contacting your Senator about. According to The Hill, "The House passed a measure Thursday to block the IRS from using funds revoking the tax-exempt status of churches that participate in political campaigns." Yes, you heard that right. A church will be able to use its clout to support political candidates as well as, de facto, strong-arming its membership to fall in line. A indelible stain on democracy if it should happen.

The legislation limits the agency from rescinding the groups' tax-exempt status and requires the express approval of the IRS commissioner to do so. As you might imagine, it was tacked on as a rider to a government funding bill which was passed 217 to 199, pretty much along party lines. This bill also applies to other non-profit organizations which raises the spector that there will be more "pay to play" with politicians holding their hands open to possible contribution in exchange for a little quid pro quo.

The measure has been sent on to the Senate who killed a similar measure in December of 2017. However, with tight senate races underway, the temptation this time may be too great for the Senate to reject this, especially attached to a funding package. Even those you might perceive have the most to gain aren't thrilled with this. A 2016 poll showed that 3 out of 4 Evangelical Christians don't want their ministers preaching politics out of the pulpit--do your part to prevent this. However, it will go a long way to holding the senators accountable, if they know you are watching and acting! 

Turning Polarity in Progress: How Progressives Can Win

Having a divide along political lines is far from a new phenomenon. What we must never forget is that issues can unite us where politics divide. For instance, while national healthcare has been politically divisive, there are few that would argue that our current form of health care coverage is successful. So it may be surprising to know that of all the people who had Medicaid or ACA coverage in 2016 , nearly three-quarters of adults said they are satisfied with their plans. According to The Hill, "Overall, 71 percent of people who have plans through the ObamaCare marketplace or Medicaid said their healthcare plans were good, very good or excellent, according to ... the nonprofit Commonwealth Fund." And yet, when Trump and the Republicans were successful in eroding funding and limiting access for the ACA, satisfaction went down to 22% in 2017.

So, what we now know is that people are again going without health coverage and still believe it is important to address. Governing listed health insurance as the second top priority for states for 2018. An AP-NORC poll showed that healthcare is the #1 concern on domestic and economic issues.

What is missing is a push from the public to make it front and center to our expectations from our legislators. Not uncoincidentally, voters believe that their lawmakers won't get far with their priority this year as 72% believe the government won't make progress on this as the survey below shows.

As usual, as long as politics divide us, progress on the things that matter to people get side-stepped. In this less than optimistic time, it is important to note that when we join together on the things that we hold in common, stuff gets done. A popular catch phrase is "pick a lane" and we all need to do it around the issues we mostly agree on.

Trump Trumps Trump

Unless you were in a coma or other catatonic state, you are aware that our President threw his national intelligence agencies under the bus at the summit he had with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. He also intimated that he felt like Russia was not involved in the 2016 election mess--comment that he has since walked back (while still claiming no collusion occurred between his campaign and the Russians.

Badmouthing is not a new thing for Trump. He seems to take great pleasure in calling his opponents all kinds of diminishing names. However, what is doing now is harmful to us, the American people. He is saying that the only authority you should trust is his. This is simply authoritarianism and not how representative democracy is supposed to work. Coupling this with his own party's inability or unwillingness to censure him in any way lends credibility to him and reduces trust in them as a countervailing force to executive overreach.

Add to this  the tax cuts made before the new year, the US government is going to borrow a $1,000,000,000,000 to pay the bills and support the programs that the budget is addressing. According to Fiscal Times, "the updated budget now includes a projected 2019 deficit of $1.085 trillion, up from $984 billion in February — and more than double the $526 billion the White House called for in its 2018 budget." The Chicago Tribune adds, "The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $955 billion this fiscal year, according to a documents released Wednesday. It's the highest amount of borrowing in six years, and a big jump from the $519 billion the federal government borrowed last year."

Essentially, the idea that growth in the economic sector would take care of these tax cuts is proving to be a big, fat, lie. According to Market Watch, "the Treasury Department on Thursday said government receipts fell 7% in June compared with the same month a year earlier, including a 33% drop in gross corporate taxes. Individual withheld and payroll taxes were down 5% from June 2017, while non-withheld individual taxes rose by 7%."

Meanwhile, at least until the mid-term elections November, the Democrats are observers with little power to prevent these shady dealings from happening. As Edward R. Murrow once said, "Good Night and Good Luck."

Trump Nominates Originalist Judge

For years conservatives have framed progressive or liberal judges as "activist judges" and suggesting that they use their political views to form their judicial decisions. However, for the last 30 years or so, conservatives have been working an agenda that does exactly what they purport the other side does. In nominating Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, the conservative movement has reason for patting themselves on the back. Kavanaugh, a United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and a White House Staff Secretary under George W. Bush.  His confirmation hearings were contentious and stalled for three years over charges of partisanship. 

Where he stands in his words is "My judicial philosophy is straightforward. A judge must be independent and must interpret the law, not make the law. A judge must interpret statutes as written. And a judge must interpret the Constitution as written, informed by history and tradition and precedent.”  This puts him in the camp of the "strict Constitutionalists" or "Originalists."

Kavanaugh was part of Ken Starr's impeachment team against Bill Clinton and, according to Mother Jones,  "has so frequently inserted himself into high-profile political battles that during his confirmation hearing for his DC Circuit seat, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) called him the “Forrest Gump of Republican politics.”

For example, Kavanaugh represented former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in his fight to overcome constitutional hurdles to his controversial school voucher program that would direct public money to private religious schools. In the 2000 election came down to Florida, he worked on George W. Bush’s legal team.

While these qualities will not endear him to many Democrats, it is his legal record that is of issue.

Kavanaugh, has been cagey around the issue of abortion. According to Wikipedia:

During his confirmation hearing in 2006 for the District of Columbia Court of Appeals, Kavanaugh stated that he considered Roe v. Wade binding under the principle of stare decisis and would seek to uphold the ruling of the higher court. However, he also ruled in favor of abortion restrictions in several cases.

In May 2006, Kavanaugh stated he "would follow Roe v. Wade faithfully and fully" and that the issue of the legality of abortion has already "been decided by the Supreme Court". During the hearing, he stated that a right to an abortion has been found "many times", citing Planned Parenthood v. Casey. 

In October 2017, Kavanaugh joined an unsigned divided panel opinion which found that the Office of Refugee Resettlement could prevent an unaccompanied minor in its custody from obtaining an abortion. Days later, the en banc D.C. Circuit reversed that judgment, with Kavanaugh now dissenting. The D.C. Circuit's opinion was then itself vacated by the U.S. Supreme Court in Garza v. Hargan (2018).

He has also been a dissenting vote in preserving the Affordable Care Act,  In 2015, Kavanaugh found that those directly regulated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) could challenge the constitutionality of its design

There is more to be learned about Brett Kavanaugh and his hearings will likely go on for awhile.

Addendum: On-going list of articles that shed further light on his judicial background.

Trump’s Supreme Court pick: ISPs have 1st Amendment right to block websites (added 7/11/18)
Trump’s Supreme Court Nominee Is a Major Net Neutrality Opponent (added 7/11/18)
Brett Kavanaugh Has GOP Bona Fides, But a Surprising Record (Added 7/11/18)
Here’s How Kavanaugh Could Deal a Big Blow to Gun Control (Added 7/11/18)
How Brett Kavanaugh Would Change The Supreme Court (Added 7/12/18)
Judge Brett Kavanaugh: In His Own Words (Added 7/12/18)
A look at Brett Kavanaugh's opinions on guns, abortion and the environment (Added 7/12/18)
America Under Brett Kavanaugh (Added 7/12/18)

Trump Putting Hardworking Americans He Hired Out of Work

No one said being POTUS would be easy, but by his 365th day as president, 34% of Donald Trump’s "A" Team staff quit, changed roles or were fired, this according to the Brookings Institution’s Katie Dunn Tenpas. That statistic has now climbed upwards past 43 percent.  According to the National Journal,  this is "more than double every other administration since 1981."

As a comparison, Barack Obama lost 9% of senior staffers by the end of his first year, George W. Bush lost 6% and Ronald Reagan had the previous record of 17%.In 2018 alone, 58 officials have left, changed roles, or were fired from the White House and Executive branch departments like the State Department and the DOJ,

     Added to this, Trump has already accepted the resignation of or fired 5 cabinet officials, Scott Pruit just the latest in a line. According to the New York Times "analysis of 21 top White House and cabinet positions back to President Bill Clinton’s first term shows how unusual the upheaval is through the first 14 months of a presidency. Nine of these positions have turned over at least once during the Trump administration, compared with three at the same point of the Clinton administration, two under President Barack Obama and one under President George W. Bush."

   Perhaps in other segments of service industry jobs, this would not seem so out of the ordinary, but in terms of other presidencies, this is without parallel. Perhaps someday there will be an accounting of the reasons why these rats are leaving or being told to leave a seemingly sinking ship.

What Would the Founding Fathers Say?

The United States has an interesting core values dilemma. We are a nation founded both on religious freedom and tolerance and yet we have locked up asylum-seekers and their children on our southern borders. As of today, the DOJ announced it needs more time to bring the children of asylum seekers and their parents back together despite being court ordered to do so by July 10th for children under 5 and by July 26th for older children. This despite compelling medication on several children in custody, forcing dozens of women to be paraded in front of the DHS head, keeping kids in detention centers that avoid state oversight, using DNA testing to ID children and their parents and keeping them in captivity for weeks. Many of these people are deeply religious and socially conservative by our standards.

While many churches are rightly vilifying our government for this inhumanity, the wheels of bureaucracy creak on.  This continued inhumanity is a black mark on our country and the indignities that these people face are reprehensible.

Contact your Senators and Representatives. You have a voice, use it.

Feel The Sun Burn

With thanks to the word warriors at the Merriam -Webster dictionary, I now know that we have entered into the canicular time of the year, that hot period in our hemisphere between now and early September (aka: the dog days of summer). It is fitting, politics are also heating up. Though likely to feel like a slow boil up to November,  Iowans and other voters throughout these United States will have the opportunity to "feel the burn" of at least two or more years of conservative policies that are mostly hurting average Americans through higher prices on fuel and items that will now be tariffed by our trading partners (creating job uncertainty/instability, by the way), policies that allow air and water quality to be severely compromised, education to be extremely under-funded, and local property and sales taxes and other "fees" for services to escalate.

   These lazy days of summer are creating discomfort for many people who want a sense of real relief from their state capitals and the chambers of DC (that  they are being told that they are getting), but are seeing little evidence that it is actually occurring. People don't want to play moral "Monopoly" and side with dishonest wheeler-dealers who lull them into thinking they are having a spa retreat when all that is happening is the water on the stove is being turned up incrementally until they and things boil over.

   While many people also are concerned about the mistreatment of immigrants and their families, they also made to worry about "bad" people crossing our borders. They want blue and black lives to matter. They want safer communities and more consistent, common-sense gun laws while also maintaining their right to self-protection. It is likely that with the heat of the summer, tempers may flare and fires of disparagement will be fanned for the sake of driving a wedge between people who are far more alike than not on many issues.

   Even those who wish to restore an America that others fear may be in the rear-view mirror recognize that we can't be great if our allies are uncertain of our goals and question our resolve to live up to our own agreements. It has never worked for one nation to wield so much clout without resistance being fomented. America, as most have known us, has been great because we have used our diplomatic power to broker more democracy in many parts of the world. Clearly we are in uncharted waters with a President whose foreign policy is undefinable and is so self-congratulatory in the face of nebulous results.

   The summer reminds us that while the other seasons bring cool relief to us, only it can bring the degree of discomfort to our entire being and also solace to our tired bones. We may enjoy the warming trend for a period of time, but it can also wear us out and lead us to into doldrums that only the coming of autumn coolness can bring.

   During my self-imposed vacation from social media, I have discovered that losing the voice of the echo chamber has been healthy, like a brief intense breeze on a summer day. It is important to hear each other out. We have seen what a lack of civility and unforgiveness can do to people. We have seen the real enemy; we live with ourselves. May cooler heads prevail in the months ahead, even as we fight for the future of our country. For this democracy to work, we have to make it work every day, with each person to be one nation indivisible. As the bumper-sticker says "We are the change we've been waiting for."